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Post by kevinudm on Oct 7, 2013 12:40:54 GMT -6
An astonishing 49 NCAA Division 1 schools have changed their conference affiliation for 2013-14, or nearly one in seven. Most of these changes have been driven by football, directly or indirectly. In fact, most relate to changes in the BCS football conferences and the subsequent ripple effects. For example, Oakland joined the Horizon League because Tulane joined the Big East in 2012, when it was still a BCS conference. (The Tulane add was final straw that precipitated the departure of the “Catholic 7” into a new Big East; the new Big East poached Creighton from the Missouri Valley Conference; the MVC then replaced Creighton with Loyola-Chicago, and the Horizon replaced Loyola with Oakland.)
With the ACC’s recent “grant of rights” the ACC member schools have transferred their media rights to the conference for many years to come, making the ACC schools unattractive to the Big 10 or Big 12 or any other conferences which might try to lure its schools. The Big 12 already had a similar program in place, leading many people to conclude that the current wave of realignment was now complete.
Not so fast. Lots of potential conference changes are still in the offing. Most of them would affect the mid majors and have a direct bearing the Horizon League’s prospects. Subsequent posts will detail some of these potential changes.
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Post by kevinudm on Oct 7, 2013 12:45:21 GMT -6
What next for the MVC?
There’s no question that the Missouri Valley Conference took a major hit when Creighton bolted for the new Big East. Now the Valley is down to one flagship program, Wichita State. What happens next is where things get interesting….
The MVC is in danger. With Creighton gone, Wichita St. is now an outlier in the league in terms of geography (well to the west of the other members), in terms of athletic budgets and in terms of athletic success. And they may have one opportunity to improve their situation.
The Mountain West Conference has 12 members. But one is Hawaii, a football-only member of the league. Hawaii would like to get into the PAC-12 someday but that’s not happening anytime soon, and probably never. And the other MWC schools don’t want to put up with the expense and hassle sending their Olympic-sports teams halfway across the Pacific, so Hawaii’s football-only membership in the MWC is likely to remain a long term reality. Which means that the MWC needs one non-football member to get basketball up to an even 12.
Gonzaga would seem to be a great choice for the MWC, but it would be foolish for them to leave the far more stable WCC. In the WCC they’ve enjoyed great success, they are surrounded by similar small and private institutions, and the league has stepped up its game with the addition of BYU. So if not Gonzaga, who would the MVC want to add?
Denver would be a reasonable choice, a perfect geographic fit who’s desperate to leave the Summit League. But it’s not a high profile addition the way Wichita St. would be. The Shockers could go toe-to-toe with UNLV and San Diego St and the other MVC basketball powerhouses from day 1. While the geography is a bit of a stretch (as a Gonzaga addition would also be), if the MWC adopted a Mountain/West divisional structure for Olympic sports, similar to what they have done for football, the logistics are workable.
This is a move that makes a lot of sense, both for Wichita State and for the MWC. And if the MVC loses Wichita in addition to Creighton, it’s a devastating hit. They become a one bid league for NCAA tournament purposes.
The MVC has two cards to play. If the Big East continues to dither regarding new adds, the MVC should make an all-out offensive to win over Saint Louis and Dayton. Zero admission fee, immediate eligibility for a full payout of NCAA tournament receipts, and strong guarantee of continued membership of the major players (i.e., a grant of rights or dramatically boosted exit fees). With Wichita, Dayton and Saint Louis the MVC would be the number two non-FBS basketball conference, second only to the Big East.
If Saint Louis and Dayton cannot be lured, the MVC would be wise to add two other new members in the near term, as it will be much harder to attract anyone else in after Wichita is gone. Oral Roberts, Denver, Belmont, Murray St, and Valparaiso are obvious options, with MVFC football being available for any FCS football schools.
Prediction: The MVC has not been proactive to date, and won’t start now. The MWC will poach Wichita St and the MVC will backfill them with one add, most likely making an offer to Valparaiso.
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Post by kevinudm on Oct 7, 2013 12:49:51 GMT -6
Will the WAC eat the Summit League?
Few conferences have suffered from realignment so much as the WAC, which lost 11 members since 2011 and has Idaho leaving after this year. The WAC survived only by consuming the Great West Conference, which disbanded after the WAC took Chicago State, Texas Pan Am and Utah Valley.
The Horizon League, Summit and WAC all cover some of the same geography. The Horizon is clearly the best of these three conferences, and the WAC and Summit have been striving to avoid being the bottom of the barrel. The Summit seemed to take the lead when Denver bolted the WAC for the Summit in late 2012, but UMKC returned the favor shortly thereafter by jumping from the Summit to the WAC
Today the WAC seems to have a slight edge over the Summit, particularly after Oakland left the Summit for the Horizon League, and with Denver just biding time in the Summit until it can get into the WCC, MVC or MWC. Both conferences contain a hodge podge of little known schools, but at least the WAC is a recognized brand name.
The WAC could leverage that slim lead into a more secure future for itself by extending offers to current Summit members North Dakota St., South Dakota and South Dakota St. Also to North Dakota of the Big Sky (North Dakota is already an affiliate member of the WAC for baseball and swimming, and might look favorably on a league that would unite all four of the Dakota schools), with Nebraska Omaha as a back up if North Dakota declines.
This would leave the WAC with 12 schools: a western division of Cal St. Bakersfield, Grand Canyon U., New Mexico St, Seattle, Texas Pan Am and Utah Valley; and a central division of Chicago St., UMKC, and the four new schools. Denver and Nebraska Omaha (or Western Illinois if Omaha had already made the jump) could also be offered to take the league up to 14, although there seems to be some bad blood between Denver and the WAC.
This would be a good move for the WAC as well as for the Summit schools that made the jump. Neither the WAC nor the Summit can currently field a baseball league without affiliates, but an expanded WAC could provide a full range of sports without fear that any would fall below the NCAA minimum numbers. The divisional split would mean that the former Summit members would have reasonable travel for most of their games. And the expanded WAC would be far more stable than the existing WAC and Summit Leagues, both of which are in constant danger of dissolution.
So what happens to the Summit League leftovers? If Western Illinois failed to get into the expanded WAC they would be a good match for the OVC. IUPUI and IPFW would hope for Horizon invites, but that would not be likely. While the logistics would be ugly, the Atlantic Sun conference needs members (Mercer and East Tennessee leave at the end of this year, and NKU will likely depart soon as well), and two Indiana schools would need homes so there could be a shotgun wedding.
Prediction: The expanded WAC makes a lot of sense and could eventually become an FCS football conference. It’s hard to imagine this not happening.
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Post by kevinudm on Oct 7, 2013 12:53:02 GMT -6
When will the Big East act?
When the Catholic 7 broke off the old Big East to form their new conference, many observers were surprised when they only extended three invitations to other schools to join them: Xavier, Butler and Creighton. Butler is the only non-Catholic member of the new conference, and Creighton – while a tremendous fit institutionally and athletically – is located in Omaha, far to the west of the already sprawling C7 footprint. Dayton and Saint Louis had been considered to be near locks but have been left out in the cold, at least temporarily. What happened?
The Big East’s contract with Fox Sports will grow proportionally if they expand from 10 schools to 12, so there is no concern of financial dilution. But when the C7 voted to expand they were not yet even a real conference, without a league commissioner or any structure whatsoever. So the C7 made three additions, enough to get the conference started, and delayed further decisions for at least a year.
While Creighton’s invitation was the most surprising of the three, it had a lot to do with politicking by Creighton’s president, particularly with his counterparts in the other Jesuit institutions.
The question awaiting the Big East now is a real poser. Saint Louis is an obvious addition, and they are more than eager to get out of the A10. But Dayton, a one-time front runner, now seems to be a questionable choice. It’s a great institutional fit, a natural rival to Xavier, and has a tradition of strong teams with fervent support. But it’s in a small market, the school has only fielded NIT-caliber teams in recent years, and when combined with SLU, the addition of Dayton would tip the Big East geographic center firmly into the Midwest. A league that would include Marquette, Dayton, Butler, Xavier and SLU starts looking uncomfortably like the old Midwestern Cities Conference.
VCU would maintain geographic balance for the Big East (6 schools in the east, 6 in the Midwest) and has fielded terrific teams of late. But what happens to their program when Shaka Smart inevitably leaves? And adding just one public institution would force the Big East to open up their internal deliberations under public disclosure laws. This would be worth the pain if U-Conn and Cincinnati wanted to go indie in football and Big East for everything else – but they don’t. VCU just isn’t worth the trouble.
Richmond would also maintain geographic balance and has a credible athletic program. With a $1.9 billion endowment they can afford to make any necessary facility upgrades for the Big East. But would anyone be interested in watching a Richmond-DePaul game? The Spiders would diminish the average caliber of the league.
Prediction: The Big East will add Saint Louis soon, probably by April 2014, to forestall any other movement by SLU. They might stop at 11 members until there is an equally obvious candidate for the twelfth and final spot – the Big 10 managed just fine with 11 members for a quarter century – but they will probably add Dayton at that point too. As in the case of Creighton, it’s the university presidents that make the final call and the tiebreaker will be institutional fit.
If the A10 loses both STL and Dayton they may choose to hold at 12 members for awhile. Davidson, their latest addition, fails to excite anyone so they are really scraping now for new adds. U-Mass is probably next in line for AAC membership, so when they leave look for the A10 to add Siena to maintain their membership at 12 with no members west of Pennsylvania (Duquesne).
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Post by kevinudm on Oct 7, 2013 12:58:10 GMT -6
Breakoff of the Power Football Conferences
There has been rumbling for some time of a potential split within the FCS conferences between the “Power Conferences” (ACC, Big 10, SEC, Big 12, PAC 12 and maybe the AAC) and the other conferences. If that were to happen the current FCS schools would find that they had dropped down in the pecking order, from second rung to third.
But the best FCS conferences field football teams which are very close in caliber to the lesser FBS conferences. Conference USA, MAC and Sun Belt football is comparable to the Missouri Valley Football Conference (the MVFC, a football-only conference affiliated with the MVC but separate from it and with a different membership) or Colonial. Conversely, the FCS non-scholarship Pioneer League (home to Valparaiso football, not to mention Butler, Drake, Dayton and others) is miles and mile below the MVFC.
To-date the MVFC schools have resisted the calls to upgrade to FBS status (and certainly the WAC would have sponsored anyone interested in such in upgrade during their latter, desperate football days). But if there is a split between FBS-Power and FBS-Lite, the MVFC schools may see an opportunity to make a more manageably-sized jump. The problem here is that there are no football-only FBS conferences.
So what would happen if the MVFC decided to become an all-sports conference, competing at an FBS-Lite level for football and plain old Division 1 for everything else?
The Horizon League would lose Youngstown St, a member of the MVFC. The Summit would be gutted, losing its three Dakota schools plus Western Illinois. And the Big Sky or the OVC could lose a couple of members if the MVFC wanted to get to 12 football schools to allow a championship game; Eastern Illinois and North Dakota are obvious targets.
Meanwhile the five members of the MVC which don’t participate in the MVFC could be left out in the cold. Bradley, Drake, Evansville, Loyola and Wichita St would need to consider their options. One scenario is that Wichita St. goes west (probably to the MWC) and the other four join the Horizon. Another scenario is that the leftovers of the MVC, Horizon and Summit re-form into two new conferences with all of the schools jockeying to get into the better of the two new leagues (i.e., the better league is the one that doesn’t include IUPUI and IPFW). UMKC and Chicago St. would likely leave the WAC for either of the new conferences as well.
Prediction: There will continue to be rumblings about a split of the power conferences, not to mention the four 16-member “super conferences.” Not gonna happen. Instead, watch for the new four team playoff for a national champion to grow to eight teams and then 16, and the FBS schools will split the proceeds and laugh their way to the bank. And the MVFC stays intact.
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Post by kevinudm on Oct 7, 2013 13:10:00 GMT -6
Right school, wrong conference351 schools play Division 1 basketball, and the majority of them would like to realign their way into better conferences. The exceptions are the schools already in “pinnacle conference” and have no way to go any higher. The “absolute pinnacle” conferences are the SEC, Big 10, PAC 12, Big East and Ivy League. If members of these conferences were to switch to other leagues they would not appreciably improve their situations. The ACC, BIG 12 and WCC are “near pinnacles” and are also likely to stay intact for the foreseeable future (although BYU could opt out of the WCC at any time). Beyond that, the membership of other conferences is continuously evaluating the landscape and looking for opportunities to improve their situations. Dozens of schools switch affiliations each year and we see progressions of schools going from the Sun Belt to C-USA, from C-USA to the AAC, and from the AAC to wherever they can get. So rather than just looking at which conferences are likely to act, it’s also interesting to examine the opposite perspective: which schools are ready and raring to go. In other words, who are the mid-majors that have something to offer, but are poor fits in their current leagues? - Denver – Frustration with the WAC – for good reason – motivated them to jump to the Summit League. If the saying “Out of the frying pan and into the fire” hadn’t already existed, it would have been coined for this situation. Denver is a good school, and excellent media market and they’re finally starting to focus on sports other than hockey, with impressive results. This school doesn’t belong in the Summit and they won’t stay there long.
- Oral Roberts – They’ve had a rough time since leaving the MCC (the precursor to the Horizon League), briefly dropping D-1 athletics before getting back into the game, and into the Summit. Growing tired of paying exorbitant travel bills in order to play mediocre competition, they bolted the Summit for the Southland. Now they can compete against the likes of Abilene Christian and University of the Incarnate Word. Really? ORU is in a good media market, has a history of athletic success and a level of nationwide brand recognition uncommon for mid-majors. They are one of just three Southland members that don’t participate in the FCS football.
- Belmont – The newest member of the OVC is the only private school in the conference and one of just three league members no participating in OVC FCS football. Another attractive school with a good market, good athletics and good academics.
- Seattle University – Seattle was a member of the WCC until they downgraded their athletics. When they recently returned to D-1, the WAC was the only home available. The WCC recently added a new member to balance out the addition of BYU, and two former members – Seattle and the University of the Pacific – were the two obvious candidates. Pacific got the nod. Seattle’s athletics have not yet returned to prominence. But Seattle is the only private school in the WAC, and the only member in the Pacific Northwest (or they will be, after Idaho departs in 2014. It seems only a matter of time before this Jesuit university ends up in the WCC where it belongs, either as part of an expansion to 12 schools (with Denver) or else as a replacement for BYU.
- Murray State – This may be a school that no longer belongs on this list. Murray State is a perfect fit for the OVC in terms of geography and institutional fit. And they’re an FCS school in an FCS conference. The only reason why they are on this list at all is that they have enjoyed outsized success in the basketball court for more than a decade. But their basketball star faded a bit in 2012-13, and looks to lose some more luster in the upcoming season.
Prediction: This one is tough, but Denver will probably be the first school on this list to change conferences.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 7, 2013 14:24:43 GMT -6
Nice write-up kevinudm. I too believe that most of the pending realignment will occur among the mid-major programs. The next two years will be very pivotal for mid-majors. It does all start with the Big East. What they do trickles down to the MVC, MWC and the HL with the other leagues you named (Summit & WAC) trying to survive. Along those lines, there have been quite a few Division II programs upgrading to Division I. This bodes well for Conferences such as the A-Sun, which will lose 2 teams for sure next season (East Tennessee State and Mercer) and possibly a third in Northern Kentucky. With those Division II programs moving up, they will begin to form the group of schools needed to replenish the departing schools from other lesser leagues such as the A-Sun and other low-major conferences. It will most definitely be interesting to see what happens to the Horizon League in all of this. Do we stand pat, and continue to be reactive and not proactive like we have been in the past? Or does the HL busts out of its conservative mold and make some bold and numerous invites? This past season with what the C7/Big East did and the resultant moves by the Valley and Horizon, it only served as a tease to what's coming this upcoming college off-season.
I still personally would love to see the Horizon League go after Northern Kentucky, Belmont and Murray State (although Murray State doesn't have soccer). That would bring us to 12 teams in basketball, 9 in baseball (keeping us safe from losing our AQ) and 10 in soccer. I think elsewhere in another post I listed my other preferences if these 3 weren't added. At any rate, conference realignment will still be a big topic throughout the upcoming college basketball season, through the Big Dance and beyond.
Again, nice write-up!
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Post by kevinudm on Oct 17, 2013 15:52:09 GMT -6
Who should the Horizon League add?
Chuck, I appreciate the thoughtful feedback.
Who the Horizon should target for expansion is an intriguing question. “Institutional fit” is critical. To figure out who might fit best, start by looking at what the current Horizon League schools have in common:
• Midwestern-based.
• Medium sized institutions.
• Urban schools, more commuter than residential.
• Basketball-focused – i.e., no scholarship football.
There are some exceptions currently. Valpo is not urban, and Youngstown State has football. But 7 current members have all four of these characteristics, and the other two have 3 of 4. Members that are too far removed from these commonalities haven’t stayed long in the Horizon League. So some schools that joined the League in years past like Northern Illinois (with FBS football) and LaSalle (far to the east, in Philadelphia) did not remain.
Northern Kentucky is a no brainer. In a suburb of Cincinnati, they are more-or-less Midwestern. They are medium sized, urban and basketball-focused. And of course they are a good school, they’re investing in athletics and are a perfect travel partner for Wright State.
I used to favor Belmont and Murray State but now have second thoughts, particularly about Murray St. Murray St. is not Midwestern, not urban and plays FCS football (so even if they wanted Horizon League membership, this would be conditional on finding a place for their football team, perhaps the MVFC). If Murray St. wants to upgrade their athletics it would make more sense for them to join the Colonial Athletic Conference for all sports, including football. And while Murray St has had great basketball for 20 years, they may finally be slipping. They’re on their seventh coach since 1990 because the successful ones keep getting hired away. While they were first in the OVC West last year, that was a very weak division, and three schools in the OVC East had better records and higher RPIs. The Racers didn’t have any post season last year. They lost their best player from 2012 and are predicted to be a middle-of-the-pack OVC team this year. So the Horizon League isn’t a great fit for them, and they’re no longer all that attractive to us.
Belmont seems a better fit but supposedly are not interested in the Horizon League. With no logical travel partner to bring along with them, they seem like a highly doubtful add.
Chuck is right that It makes sense to keep an eye on move ups from Division II (Indiana Tech? Grand Valley?) but they’ll be a few years in the future, at least. More likely we should watch on four schools in or near the current footprint: Chicago St., IPFW, IUPUI, UMKC. All four are good institutional fits, but have lousy athletics. None is an attractive option today, but any of these schools made a major commitment to upgrade athletics, that could change.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 17, 2013 23:20:51 GMT -6
During the Horizon League Media Day, Commissioner LeCrone intimated that the HL will indeed be expanding within the next year or so. He said they are working very hard on expansion/realignment.
I love talking expansion and realignment and all the speculation that goes along with it. I'm inclined to agree with your assessment of both Murray State and Belmont. They both seemed like attractive partners that we had an excellent chance of getting into the League. Now things seemed to have cooled on both. I think the reasons you give for both teams are quite valid. Belmont, without Murray State won't even think about leaving the OVC.
You mentioned in the "Chicago State to the HL" thread that Chicago State would be an awkward geographical fit in the HL unless UIC or Valparaiso leaves (for obvious travel partner reasons). Say, either UIC or Valparaiso left the League, Chicago State still would have to deal with and shore up its academics. They would be woefully low on the academic totem pole of Horizon League schools. A few years back, they were on the verge of losing their accreditation. They have since cleared that hurdle and are making progress.
They have also made progress in athletics. They have a brand new on-campus baseball field and they will add a women's soccer team in the fall of '14. They still don't have softball, men's or women's swimming & diving or men's soccer.
Kansas City is upgrading it athletics as well, but they have no baseball and no swimming & diving.
I also think because of what transpired the past two seasons with mid-major teams leaving and joining conferences, that LeCrone won't have us waiting until the last hour to announce what the Horizon League will do. He might wait to see what the Big East and MVC do or he just might be proactive and take the bull by the horns and invite a team or three before the season is over. Heck, I truly wouldn't be surprised if he's already been in contact with certain teams and extended invites.
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Post by kevinudm on Oct 21, 2013 14:29:13 GMT -6
Chuck,
As usual, your comments are on the mark. If Chicago State were to join the Horizon, they would become the travel partner for UIC. Assuming that NKU had joined by that point at well, then a 12th member would still be needed; that would have to be IUPUI or IPFW (probably IUPUI), and they would be Valparaiso’s travel partner. But none of Chicago St/IUPUI/IPFW are very attractive today, so I doubt that this happens in the near term.
You raise a great point about academic standards. From 1979 thru 1994, all of the Horizon League schools were private and selective institutions. That changed in 1994 when the Mid-Continent Conference was raided for six schools, all public and most of average academic standards. Today UDM, UIC and Valpo could be considered “selective” but the other six schools are average.
So I hadn’t considered academic standards when looking at potential HL adds. But Chicago St. is really far below average. Their average ACT score for freshman is 19, compared to an average of 23.7 across the HL. 3% of Chicago St’s freshmen graduate in four years, compared to 23% for the HL. And Chicago St. has an endowment of $3M, compared to an average of $94M for current HL schools. The tiny endowment will hamper any plans Chicago St. has to upgrade facilities, academics or athletics. And while Chicago St. has apparently addressed the recent APR problem of the men’s basketball program, that’s yet another red flag.
So even if the athletics were to improve, in my mind Chicago St is not HL material.
LeCrone has a tough job managing HL expansion, with few suitable candidates to be found. My guess is that NKU is already in the bag, but won’t be announced until April when 2013/14 athletics are winding down. The only other pair of adds that would make sense for the HL now would be Evansville/Belmont, long rumored, but I suspect highly doubtful.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 21, 2013 23:51:34 GMT -6
I too believe that NKU is in the bag. They also have a couple of Horizon League connections in administration that might go a long way in securing them. NKU President Mearns was a dean at Cleveland State University while their new AD Ken Bothof was the AD at Green Bay. So I think it will be quite a smooth transition. It would just be a matter of convincing the board of trustees that moving to the Horizon League from the Atlantic Sun would be in Northern Kentucky's best interest. The way realignment and expansion is going, it's important to get the jump on the situation before you're left with the dregs of the NCAA. I also wouldn't put it pass the Commissioner to let the league stay at 10 teams for the foreseeable future, since there are so few suitable candidates. I would be utterly surprised if NKU is not the team that has been tabbed for HL expansion.
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Post by HLFanaticus on Oct 22, 2013 14:24:51 GMT -6
Although the HL might have NKU in the bag, it was still a shrewd move to not have them in the league this season. With the loss of Loyola and their dreadful rpi and the upgrade of Oakland, the HL is poised for a top ten conference rpi ranking. Bringing in NKU for the '13-'14 season would have been an rpi anchor. I was looking at their roster and they have 1-Senior, 1-Junior, 6-Sophomores and 5-Freshmen. This team, on paper, looks like a JV team! They finished last season 11-16 overall and 9-9 in the A-Sun. At best, they duplicate that record, at worst...well. Although they wouldn't be eligible for any HL championship, tourney or postseason participation, they would still count toward our overall rpi if they were in.
Next season they would be a team of mostly Juniors and Sophomores with valuable experience, with only two years left on their Division I probation period (they become fully eligible for championship participation during the '16-'17 season). If the announcement of their invite is done early enough, that will help them with their recruiting and now, they're in a better position to bring something to the table as a Horizon League member.
These past two-three years has really caused Commissioner LeCrone to work for that dollar they're paying him!
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Post by kevinudm on Oct 28, 2013 14:19:45 GMT -6
There's no question that it would be useful for the Horizon League to be at 10 teams today. Scheduling could be balanced and Wright St. could have a travel partner. And particularly now that Bracket Busters is no more, it would be better to have 18 league games rather than 16 to fill out the Jan-Feb-Mar basketball schedule.
But in the bigger picture, you're right. It doesn't look good for a high mid major conference to have D-II transitional schools in its ranks; that's what you expect to see in the Summit or the Atlantic Sun, but not the Horizon. Even in the case of a very promising candidate like Northern Kentucky. So my guess is that the HL will formally make the offer in April 2014 and NKU will quickly accept it. But the offer will be include a one year waiting period, so NKU will not compete in the HL until 2015-16.
Mercer and East Tennessee State are both completing a one year notice period in the A-Sun in 2013-14 (maybe there's a hefty fee for A-Sun departures on short notice?) and NKU could do the same next year. That would mean they would enter the Horizon with just one year remaining for their transitional status. And with NKU losing four starters from last year's surprising decent men's basketball team, this would give them a little more time to build up the program before making the conference jump.
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Post by HLFanaticus on Oct 28, 2013 18:56:27 GMT -6
That's not a bad idea. If that approach is taken, when NKU comes, barring transfer, they'll come with 6 seniors and 5 juniors and hopefully a nice recruiting class because of the Horizon League.
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Post by commissioner on Nov 23, 2013 16:02:21 GMT -6
One question is whether Valpo joins Detroit in pushing for another private school. NKU is likely and in my view a good addition for many reasons, but it's addition would further isolate two, small private universities in a conference which would then have 8 large state schools with many times their enrollment. LeCrone has no ambition so he'll probably stop at 10, but expanding to 12 would probably be the wiser move. If 12, I could see pressure to add privates.
Belmont does like their OVC travel costs but they are not a fit in a football league and I still believe could be induced to move. I'm not sure it needs that southern travel partner, and even if it did, Evansville might still fit the bill. Belmont has a very ambitious university administration and they may decide sooner rather than later they'd like to be Butler. In that case, the Horizon is a step in the right direction. Or the MVC could fall apart, with Wichita going to the Mountain West and the football schools looking to move to the top division by joining the MAC and Conference USA. That could leave Bradley, Drake, Evansville, and, ahem, Loyola looking for a new home. Robert Morris is another private that would be a possible Horizon addition. The league could also look east and try to induce Canisius or Niagara, which aren't the geographic outliers some think - they're quite convenient to Cleveland, Youngstown, Detroit, and Oakland.
Of course, in all this is the Horizon's future, too. Could the Horizon dissipate? There are still rumors of UIC joining Loyola in the MVC; or Valpo seeking to split. Detroit fans desperately want to join the Big East (ain't happening') or the A-10 (unlikely, but at least possible). Milwaukee fans dream of football and the MVC. But I suspect that the Horizon will actually remain a relatively stable conference that's not going to lose anybody. The geography is quite good, with relatively few long trips; the 7 state schools fit together especially well; it's got major media markets; and there are few places for its teams to go that would improve on any of these points.
Meanwhile, just say "no" to IPFW. Chicago State or even IUPUI I could take if they make serious and enforceable commitments to their programs; the former has a nice facility; both are in major recruiting and media markets. But they'd be nowhere near my top choices.
Different note: the Horizon will not be a top 10 league this year, or even close. 13th or 14th is more likely.
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