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Post by kevinudm on Nov 24, 2013 21:23:47 GMT -6
I agree that Belmont is a better add for the HL than NKU in every respect but for geography. But my guess is that Belmont has their sights on the A10. Belmont already has a marquee win this year over North Carolina and is unlikely to pick up many losses is a weak OVC, so they'll have an impressive resume by the end of the season. The A10 could soon lose another three schools (Saint Louis + another to the Big East, and U-Mass to the AAC). But the A10's recent adds have gone from Butler/VCU in 2012 (slam dunks) to George Mason in 2013 (okay...) to Davidson in 2014 (huh?), so there's not a lot of obvious additional A10 candidates out there. Siena, maybe Charleston. Certainly there are not three A10 candidates better than Belmont, and maybe no one is better.
NKU would be a fine addition to the HL; and I'd certainly be happy to add both NKU and Belmont if they would come, and run at 11 teams. There's no need to choose between them.
An MVC "blow up" is an interesting concept and could lead to a new Midwestern conference of private schools. Bradley, Drake, Loyola and Evansville could be joined by Detroit and Valpo. Oral Roberts and Belmont might in the mix too, as well as the other schools that you mentioned. A real long shot, but it would actually be a much better fit for all of the schools listed.
In the meantime the HL is fine. The geographic footprint and travel partner situation is one of the best of any conferences, especially if NKU is added. I've heard - but cannot confirm - that Detroit declined an approach from the A10 because the additional revenues would not offset the additional travel and the necessary investments needed to compete in that league. (Not that UDM would have been a shoo in to get an A10 invite; reportedly they just declined to go thru the vetting process.)
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Post by Deleted on Nov 25, 2013 1:29:21 GMT -6
One question is whether Valpo joins Detroit in pushing for another private school. NKU is likely and in my view a good addition for many reasons, but it's addition would further isolate two, small private universities in a conference which would then have 8 large state schools with many times their enrollment. LeCrone has no ambition so he'll probably stop at 10, but expanding to 12 would probably be the wiser move. If 12, I could see pressure to add privates. I feel you commissioner and I'm hopeful that the HL will go after more privates. That doesn't seem likely however with the assumed invitation to NKU. Unless there is a huge upset, there will only be one spot for a private (provided they go to 12). Again, the Big East & A-10 will determine what the Horizon League does. If the BE leaves St. Louis or Dayton out, then either of those schools, in my opinion, will have to decide whether to stay in an Eastern-based league. In one scenario, you'd have Dayton & Belmont coming. I'd have no problem with that at all. Wright State would have a built-in travel partner, not to mention a natural rival in Dayton. Belmont, although experiencing better travel in the OVC, would more than welcome the upgrade in competition and potential multiple NCAA shares. Wouldn't have a problem with Evansville/Belmont either. Belmont does like their OVC travel costs but they are not a fit in a football league and I still believe could be induced to move. I'm not sure it needs that southern travel partner, and even if it did, Evansville might still fit the bill. Belmont has a very ambitious university administration and they may decide sooner rather than later they'd like to be Butler. In that case, the Horizon is a step in the right direction. Or the MVC could fall apart, with Wichita going to the Mountain West and the football schools looking to move to the top division by joining the MAC and Conference USA. That could leave Bradley, Drake, Evansville, and, ahem, Loyola looking for a new home. Robert Morris is another private that would be a possible Horizon addition. The league could also look east and try to induce Canisius or Niagara, which aren't the geographic outliers some think - they're quite convenient to Cleveland, Youngstown, Detroit, and Oakland. Do you actually think the Missouri Valley is in danger of falling apart? Wichita State doesn't have football and they would be non-to-happy having to travel to Hawaii, being on the extreme West side of the MW. The Missouri Valley Football Conference could, as a league, decide to petition for BCS status. It is supposedly separate from the Valley basketball conference. Those 4 privates you mentioned along with NKU, would give the HL 14 teams and pretty good potential for multiple conference bids. For baseball however, only 3 institutions (Bradley, Evansville and NKU) support it. Of course, in all this is the Horizon's future, too. Could the Horizon dissipate? There are still rumors of UIC joining Loyola in the MVC; or Valpo seeking to split. Detroit fans desperately want to join the Big East (ain't happening') or the A-10 (unlikely, but at least possible). Milwaukee fans dream of football and the MVC. But I suspect that the Horizon will actually remain a relatively stable conference that's not going to lose anybody. The geography is quite good, with relatively few long trips; the 7 state schools fit together especially well; it's got major media markets; and there are few places for its teams to go that would improve on any of these points. I have also heard the rumors of the Valley still being interested in UIC (here's one scenario/rumor I saw on a UIC message board flamesmania.freeforums.net/thread/186/uic-mvc) They had to appease Valley private school Presidents by first adding a private. They will be taking up the feasibility of going to 12 teams in the very near future. Meanwhile, just say "no" to IPFW. Chicago State or even IUPUI I could take if they make serious and enforceable commitments to their programs; the former has a nice facility; both are in major recruiting and media markets. But they'd be nowhere near my top choices. Of the latter two, it appears that Chicago St. is making the most commitments to its programs. They've just built a brand new baseball stadium. They've also added a women's soccer team for the upcoming '14-'15 season. Different note: the Horizon will not be a top 10 league this year, or even close. 13th or 14th is more likely. During the period up to the beginning of the College Hoops season, I was so excited about the HL teams' position. We had brought in or either retained a talented group of young men with experience and the ability to hold their own against Division I foes (Valpo, UIC, Oakland, Milwaukee, et al) I did not anticipate UIC and Oakland struggling out of the gate at a combined 1-9. I thought we'd be a top ten league as well. It appears that that won't happen, so I've stopped drinking the Kool-aid!
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Post by HLFanaticus on Nov 25, 2013 10:38:57 GMT -6
Different note: the Horizon will not be a top 10 league this year, or even close. 13th or 14th is more likely. Commissioner, you just might be right and I'm probably going to have to change my signature line. I'll wait until conference season though, to see where the HL stands. As of this posting, the HL is #12 according to rpi-forecast.
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Post by commissioner on Nov 28, 2013 11:45:45 GMT -6
Yeah, Fanaticus, your ally Chuck is throwing in the towel too soon. Horizon is doing better than I expected, currently #11, which at a minimum is closer to your #10 than it is to my #13 or 14.
Chuck, an MVC split up would be predicated on the football schools moving. The MVFC can't move up as a group unless the NCAA changes its rules - it currently requires a school to be invited into an existing FBS-Division conference, and has capped the number of conferences. So if the schools want to move up, they'll have to individually split off from the MVFC. Indiana State has already been approached by the Sunbelt, but apparently said "no" for now. There are rumors now and again about Northern Iowa, Southern Illinois, Illinois State, and Missouri State as candidates to move. If that were to occur, the non-footballing privates and Wichita State would probably look for new homes. (There is also some talk of Wichita renewing its program). (Aside - Hawaii is not in the Mountain West anymore except for football, so that's not an issue for Wichita to move as a non-football member. Still, travel to San Jose and Boise isn't exactly close for Wichita, and it's not clear the MWC wants a non-football school).
Most of this is probably not going to happen - I think there is going to be a bit of breather on the reshuffle end. Besides, it doesn't really make a lot of sense for most MVC schools to move all their sports to the MAC, CUSA, or Sunbelt (the three likely poachers), and those conferences might all be prepared to accept football-only members, in which case the Valley would soldier on for non-football sports. The MAC has 13 teams, and even if Massachusetts were to leave (say to the AAC for football) they'd likely stick at 12 rather than grow to 14. And there's perhaps a growing realism that the bottom 5 FBS conferences don't really make money at football. It may be much better for a school such as Northern Iowa to compete for national titles in FCS than to merely try to stay relevant in FBS. So the Valley may hold together. But I don't see its sudden implosion as off the charts - at least when the bull session of possible realignment starts.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 1, 2013 3:27:00 GMT -6
Thanks for the info about football schools being invited instead of just becoming FBS. As far as the "breather" statement, I still think there will be some type of action come '14-15 season. I've heard rumors about the Missouri Valley looking into the possibility of growing to 12 teams. I also was on our (UIC) other message board and saw this post. It's probably a hope and a dream. flamesmania.freeforums.net/thread/186/uic-mvc
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Post by kevinudm on Dec 2, 2013 12:39:05 GMT -6
It's hard to see why the MVC would have any interest in UIC today. Last year the Valley looked at both Loyola and UIC, willing to admit an athletic program below MVC standards in order to get into the Chicago market. Loyola will struggle to win more than a couple of MVC games this year, but at least the other schools in the league will now each play a game in Chicago, boosting recruiting and giving their Chicago-based alumni a chance to see them in action. Now that the MVC has a Chicago presence, what would UIC bring to the table? Belmont, Oral Roberts and Valparaiso are more obvious targets.
Regarding Wichita St., the MVC is now a poor home for them. Even though they have been in the Valley for almost 70 years, Creighton was their only real current rivalry. Their basketball program is head and shoulders above the rest of the league, so they will need to aggressively schedule non-conference games just to maintain a suitable overall schedule.
Last year the Mountain West was the #3 RPI conference while the MVC was #8. When you swap out #22 Creighton for #221 Loyola, the MVC drops lower. So the MWC can provide appropriate competition for the Shockers that they can't find in the MVC. If the A10 manages to hold onto Saint Louis, the A10 could conceivably be another option for Wichita St - except that Wichita State academics are not anywhere close to A10 standards. (And don't even think about the Big East.) But Wichita St. academics match up just fine with Boise St. in the MWC.
Why would the MWC want to take on a non-football school? In part to balance off Hawaii's football-only membership, so they have an even 12 members for both football and basketball. And not only would Wichita St. provide a great competitive addition to the conference, it could also improve their TV presence. The MWC conference is nearly invisible to the east coast on weeknights during conference play. But adding a school in the central time zone means that the MWC could regularly broadcast conference games starting at 7pm Central, 8pm eastern.
Travel would of course be an issue, particularly between Wichita and the western half of the MWC. But given a choice of traveling in winter to Cedar Falls/Terre Haute/Carbondale or to San Diego/San Jose/Vegas/Reno, the longer west coast trips might still be the more appealing option.
So a Shocker move to the MWC would make a lot of sense, but of course it may or may not happen. If it did occur, would the loss of both Wichita and Creighton destabilize the MVC to the point of implosion? Probably not, but it's still interesting to speculate....
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Post by Deleted on Dec 4, 2013 0:34:15 GMT -6
It's hard to see why the MVC would have any interest in UIC today. Last year the Valley looked at both Loyola and UIC, willing to admit an athletic program below MVC standards in order to get into the Chicago market. Loyola will struggle to win more than a couple of MVC games this year, but at least the other schools in the league will now each play a game in Chicago, boosting recruiting and giving their Chicago-based alumni a chance to see them in action. Now that the MVC has a Chicago presence, what would UIC bring to the table? Belmont, Oral Roberts and Valparaiso are more obvious targets. With all due respect kevinudm, I'm going to have to disagree with you on this one. Believe it or not (and you probably won't), after the Valley Committee did their search, UIC was the front-runner. Loyola's endowment, granted, was over 200 million, but ours (at 140 million) wasn't a pittance either. Contrary to what you may have heard, Loyola's academics isn't that much higher than ours and we are a top 80 research university. Our medical center is second to none as well. Those are some of the things UIC brings to the table, but sports-wise, we bring a brand new baseball stadium with a BASEBALL TEAM! Loyola has club baseball. The Valley has 8 baseball teams and one of them, Dallas Baptist, is an affiliate. Baseball is the Valley's second sport and the AD's were a bit miffed that Loyola was brought on board WITHOUT BASEBALL! UIC has plans for a 4 million dollar state of the art soccer stadium and has added women's soccer for the '14-'15 season. The Valley had all this information, but the determining factor for inclusion at this time was the public vs private number. If the Valley Presidents had voted UIC in, it would have given the Valley 7 public universities to 3 private universities. This would have caused dissension among the Presidents, thus Loyola won out. Also having UIC in the Valley would be economical for the teams coming to Chicago as they'll spend that weekend in the same hotel with the schools being 12 miles apart, so travel will not be an issue. Alums and fans of Southern Illinois, Illinois State and Bradley will get a chance to see their team twice during the weekend. It's a win-win for all involved. And don't count out Chicago being a place for the Valley Tournament if there ever is a problem with renewing it in St. Louis.
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Post by kevinudm on Dec 4, 2013 15:53:35 GMT -6
Chuck, I certainly meant no disrespect to UIC. It's a prestigious institution and the HL is fortunate to have it as a member.
All of your points are accurate: UIC is an outstanding university, in a great media market, and it's making a number of investments in athletics. But the flip side of the coin is that UIC has traditionally been a middle-of-the-pack HL performer in terms of men's basketball, basketball attendance, and McCafferty Trophy (overall HL athletic results). That would likely leave them near the bottom of the MVC.
So if the MVC expands again, the question is if they would want to double down on the city of Chicago. The answer might depend on the reason for the expansion. If the MVC needed to replace Wichita St, after having already lost Creighton, then they would have a real need to bring in the best basketball school they could find. Alternatively, if they were doing a "plus two" to the current alignment then maybe UIC is in the mix, particularly if the MVC places a high value on a second Chicago school.
I keep expecting that one of the Chicago-area schools (NW, DePaul, Loyola, UIC) will rise to basketball prominence the way that DePaul did in the 70's/80's. If UIC could improve their on-court results on a sustained basis, they would look very attractive to the Valley.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 5, 2013 1:45:19 GMT -6
Chuck, I certainly meant no disrespect to UIC. It's a prestigious institution and the HL is fortunate to have it as a member. No disrespect taken. All of your points are accurate: UIC is an outstanding university, in a great media market, and it's making a number of investments in athletics. But the flip side of the coin is that UIC has traditionally been a middle-of-the-pack HL performer in terms of men's basketball, basketball attendance, and McCafferty Trophy (overall HL athletic results). That would likely leave them near the bottom of the MVC. You would definitely be correct on this one. I actually think we would fare better than Loyola, but right now that's not saying a whole lot. So if the MVC expands again, the question is if they would want to double down on the city of Chicago. The answer might depend on the reason for the expansion. If the MVC needed to replace Wichita St, after having already lost Creighton, then they would have a real need to bring in the best basketball school they could find. Alternatively, if they were doing a "plus two" to the current alignment then maybe UIC is in the mix, particularly if the MVC places a high value on a second Chicago school. I keep expecting that one of the Chicago-area schools (NW, DePaul, Loyola, UIC) will rise to basketball prominence the way that DePaul did in the 70's/80's. If UIC could improve their on-court results on a sustained basis, they would look very attractive to the Valley. Yeah, I agree with you on that. It's been quite difficult to gain a foothold in the college basketball scene in The Chi. It's a big city that has a lot to offer the average person, not to mention Pro Football, Basketball and Hockey in the mix for sports dollars. For the most part, Coach Moore is doing a decent job. I know the results aren't showing it thus far this season, but he has the program positioned to be a consistent winner on a yearly basis. The talent he's bringing in is getting better and better. This year's team has 8 new players that are just starting to feel a bit comfortable with each other, what with all the injuries and other issues. Early on, it was tough to have good practices with not enough healthy bodies around. I believe the program is headed for consistency. Again, I'm in no way, knocking the Horizon League. I think it can be a top ten league, eventhough it's started out a bit slow. We only have about 3 weeks left before RPI and SOS numbers are pretty much stabilized and won't greatly fluctuate during league play.
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Post by commissioner on Dec 6, 2013 15:25:32 GMT -6
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Post by kevinudm on Dec 7, 2013 10:43:41 GMT -6
Realignment moves that make no sense: - Oral Roberts leaves Summit League for Southland Conference - effective 2012
- Denver leaves WAC for Summit - effective 2013
- UMKC leaves Summit for WAC - effective 2013
- Oral Roberts leaves Southland to return to Summit - effective 2014
When Oral Roberts left the Summit, the league had one higher profile program that occasionally knocked off major schools (Oakland) and a reasonable travel partner (UMKC). Now that the Summit has neither, ORU opts to return. Granted, in the interim the Summit has added Denver, which is as good or better than Oakland. But Denver only worsens the Summit's travel profile, which was ORU's stated reason for leaving the Summit in 2012. And Denver seems unlikely to remain in the Summit long term anyway. Clearly ORU made the wrong jump in 2012 when they went to the Southland, which has a football focus (FCS) and poor basketball. But amongst the basketball mid-majors, ORU has a better-than-average program and some level of national recognition (not to mention their fine baseball program). ORU could do better than the Summit or Southland. It's very difficult to predict conference realignments when some of the schools make bone-headed moves. But at this point it would seem that the Summit would want one more addition to get back up to an even 10 schools, and the Summit now has the upper hand over the WAC. So now that ORU is making a return engagement, the Summit will raid the WAC for another of their former members, either Chicago St. or UMKC. That will leave the Summit with four reasonable travel pairs (IUPUI/IPFW, ND St./SD St., S Dak/UNO, and Western Illinois plus Chicago St or UMKC). Which leaves Denver and ORU as one ungodly travel pair, but that will mostly be a problem for the balance of the league.
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Post by HLFanaticus on Dec 8, 2013 2:21:09 GMT -6
Now this is a move that I don't get at all. I see the reasons you've mentioned, but my goodness what are these teams thinking? After the Big East/A-10/MVC/Horizon trickle down, the next set of movements seems to be the Summit League/WAC/A-Sun. I'd love to see what those 3 leagues will do.
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Post by kevinudm on Dec 8, 2013 16:14:06 GMT -6
The various Summit League school message boards are ecstatic about the return of Oral Roberts. Not only is it a solid basketball program, the conference desperately needed another baseball team. They see an ambitious list of candidate schools to get the Summit up to 10 or even 12 members: - Northern Colorado - UNC's addition would make sense of the Denver membership in the Summit, and UNC faces ridiculous travel regardless if they stay in the Big Sky or move to the Summit. But they would need to simultaneously get their football program into the MVFC where they would be an awkward geographic fit. So that seems unlikely.
- North Dakota - It makes little sense that this school is in the Big Sky, rather than in the MVFC/Summit with its Dakota brethren (ND State, SD, SD State). But again, a move to the Summit would be contingent upon simultaneous MVFC admission, which is apparently the reason that they ended up in the Big Sky.
- Arkansas Little Rock - This one is really intriguing. UALR is a non-football member of the Sun Belt Conference. Since UALR joined the SBC in 1991, they've seen 17 other schools depart. So if they're going to be in a revolving-door conference anyway, at least in the Summit the lack of a football program would not relegate them to junior partner status. They would reunite with SBC-refugee Denver, and Oral Roberts would be plausible travel partner.
- UMKC and/or Chicago St. - Everyone sees the limitations of these two schools, but they'd welcome a chance to poach from the WAC.
- Saint Louis and/or Dayton - An absurd idea but as I said, the Summit fans have some ambitious thoughts.
Additionally, Western Illinois had been looking at departing the Summit for the OVC, where there will be an opening if/when Belmont departs. While going from the MVFC to the OVC would be a step back for the football program, moving all of the other sports from the Summit to the OVC would be a real plus. The OVC offers relative stability and a neat travel footprint, and Western Illinois would have natural rivals in Eastern Illinois and SIU-Edwardsville. But now that the Summit seems to be stabilizing, Western Illinois would be less likely to make this move. So much depends on the MVFC and its not clear that they are interested in any expansion beyond their current 10 members. But Missouri State is expanding its football facilities and might soon be looking to the Sun Belt or MAC for sponsorship to FBS football, creating at least one opening. It's not implausible that the MVFC would expand to 12 and admit North Dakota and Northern Colorado. In that scenario, the Summit could get those two schools plus Little Rock, which would make them a much stronger conference than they are today.
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Post by HLFanaticus on Dec 9, 2013 4:34:46 GMT -6
And just when you thought the Summit League was headed for that conference resting place in the sky...
Picking up Oral Roberts for baseball for the Summit was a virtual coo! Oral Roberts baseball for the most part, has been on a par or even better than their basketball counterparts as it pertains to NCAA appearances, so this does indeed bode well for the Summit.
I just hope the Horizon League is still looking to solidify its position with the addition of another program or two...or three!
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Post by Deleted on Dec 10, 2013 3:35:44 GMT -6
Well, with Oral Roberts going back to the Summit, that scratches them off from being a potential member of the HL. Their baseball program was pretty good and would have been at least at the top or middle of the HL.
Anyway, the talk on this board is that NKU is pretty much a wrap. Remember a while back, there was a rumor about Evansville coming back the the Horizon League? If I had my druthers between Evansville and Northern Kentucky University, it would most definitely be Evansville. They have more of a tradition, their baseball team is far superior to NKU's (and most of the HL's as well) and would still be in the footprint of the Horizon. They would make a tough travel partner for someone, but they're still Evansville.
I'm also beginning to feel that the Horizon League will only add one team and just stay at 10 universities. I feel this because of the Belmont/Murray State situation. Murray State is pretty content being in the OVC, with its cozy and secure position as a standard bearer for the league and having a pretty decent path of getting to the Dance on a regular to semi-regular basis. Belmont, in addition to the hefty price they'd have to pay for leaving the OVC ($500,000), had concerns about the HL with the recent defections of Butler and Loyola. They also have easier and more convenient travel, not to mention an easier path to the Dance for them as well. So with the loss of Belmont and Murray State and the non-viability of Chicago State, Kansas City, IUPUI, IPFW, et al., it just looks like the League will only add one team and go with an 18-game round robin league schedule. Hopefully it's a team that has baseball. That's just my gut feeling on this. I hope I'm wrong and we can add 3 viable and strong mid-major programs that fit our profile. But there doesn't seem to be a number of them out there at this time.
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