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Post by vugrad1314 on Jan 9, 2022 18:46:05 GMT -6
The Summit League losing WIU would also be really good for their Men's basketball as they would lose a perennial sub 300 NET program. They might end up just deciding not to replace them with anybody if they do go. I don't think Green Bay and Milwaukee going to the Summit is likely I only suggested that it might be possible but institutional concerns might get in the way as the Horizon League is the superior institutional fit for them. If losing UIC which appears to be gaining traction according to this post by Matt Brown doesn't negatively impact these schools too much in terms of enrollment\alumni relations then they probably will stay. Just curious though where does Green Bay draw its students mostly? Is it mostly in state or do they get a lot from places like Minnesota or Michigan for instance if not Illinois?
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Post by gbphoenix1 on Jan 9, 2022 21:18:46 GMT -6
Green Bay draws about 25% of it's students from Brown County where GB is located.
It draws about half of it's students from a group of 16 counties in North East Wisconsin that are close to where the 4 GB campuses are.
The vast majority of the rest of the students are from Wisconsin.
Something like 2/3 of the alumni live in the Green Bay and Appleton areas. Appleton is about 30 minutes from GB. It's a separate MSA from GB. The GB MSA is 328,000 and the Appleton MSA is 243,000.
I can confidently say that while Chicago is nice to have it isn't a deal breaker for GB. I can also confidently say that building up athletics is important. The people in WI are kind of conservative with money. If GB is associated with the lowest levels of sports people are going to start asking what are we doing. That is why Chicago State is a hard pass IMO. As is adding any school that isn't willing and able to be very competitive in the HL's priority sports.
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Post by vugrad1314 on Jan 9, 2022 21:35:48 GMT -6
This looks like it's moving fast. Feels like it's almost done. I hope this works out for all concerned. I hope UIC is a good add for the MVC and I hope the HL can find a solid replacement. I have no idea who that might be though. My mind keeps circling back to the same schools as everyone else Bellarmine Morehead State USI etc but all have reasons why the HL might be hesitatnt to add them and\or they might be hesitant to go. I suppose SIU-Edwardsville is another possibility but that is another low-level school near a big market that doesn't really add much. It does keep the HL in Illinois and gives them a small piece of the St Louis market which might be nice. Not saying that's who they should add but I think they have been discussed in the past.
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Post by vugrad1314 on Jan 11, 2022 2:14:05 GMT -6
I think I read somewhere that the grow to 20 and split plan that the A-Sun had is no longer happening. Once NJIT left for the America East I don't think that plan was viable due to continuity rules. Even so, I still think Bellarmine to the HL has legitimate legs and could be viable. Consider the following:
1. Although the A-Sun has a higher NET rating right now (23 vs 27) they also stand to lose their top two schools in terms of NET rating (Liberty 113 and Jacksonville State 123) to CUSA within the next couple years leaving them with only Jacksonville (160) and Florida Gulf Coast (190) as schools with a NET better than 250.
2. By contrast, the Horizon League has 4 teams with a NET rating better than 250. Oakland 72 Cleveland State 141 Detroit 206 and Youngstown State 238. What's more, all four of these schools are staying as far as we all know with UIC (295) being the only known flight risk. Bear in mind this is also with usual stalwarts NKU and Wright State having seriously uncharacteristic down years. If they can get back firing again the league will look much stronger and more vibrant.
3. Although Bellarmine has stated it identifies as a southern university it has spent a good portion of its athletic life in a midwestern based conference the GLVC. They clearly have no issue aligning with the midwest if it suits their interests.
4. Although leaving the A-Sun would cause them to forfeit games with regional rivals like Eastern Kentucky and Lipscomb those are easily replaced with schools like Northern Kentucky and IUPUI. Bellarmine loses nothing of note with this move in terms of rivalries as EKU and Lipscomb and whoever else could still be scheduled in the nonconference.
5. The Horizon League's presence in many of the midwest's preeminent media markets provides numerous potential institutional advantages for Bellarmine for student recruitment. Both conferences are pretty far-flung from Bellarmine's perspective so travel shouldn't be much of an issue. I can't see travel to Wisconsin being too much worse for them if at all than the travel to Florida or Arkansas that they currently do.
When you look at everything Bellarmine to the HL just makes too much sense for both sides for it not to happen.
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Post by gbphoenix1 on Jan 11, 2022 11:57:24 GMT -6
If I were in charge at Bellarmine I would assume that the HL would almost always be interested in having BU join. If the ASun football thing plays out then they have a fall back. If it doesn't then they wait to see what conference looks best. Right now that's the ASun more than likely.
I love the notion of NKU to returning to normal. It kind of ignores the cyclical nature of most mid majors. Most of them dominate when they have stud players or legendary coaches. It is just hard to have one or both frequently. If it was easy then everyone would be good all the time. It's quite possible NKU is just another mid major with a nice arena. I love seeing NKU having a tough year so far with a really good roster, success isn't as easy as some fans and media think it is for them.
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Post by vugrad1314 on Jan 11, 2022 16:50:59 GMT -6
If I were in charge at Bellarmine I would assume that the HL would almost always be interested in having BU join. If the ASun football thing plays out then they have a fall back. If it doesn't then they wait to see what conference looks best. Right now that's the ASun more than likely. I love the notion of NKU to returning to normal. It kind of ignores the cyclical nature of most mid majors. Most of them dominate when they have stud players or legendary coaches. It is just hard to have one or both frequently. If it was easy then everyone would be good all the time. It's quite possible NKU is just another mid major with a nice arena. I love seeing NKU having a tough year so far with a really good roster, success isn't as easy as some fans and media think it is for them. You may be right RE: NKU but I disagree strongly with your assertion that the Atlantic Sun will be better than the HL long-term. Their top two teams in the NET this year (Liberty and Jacksonville State) are leaving their potential replacements appear to be more OVC schools like SE Missouri (NET 312) Tennessee Tech (NET 254) Tennessee-Martin (NET 263) Or Southland Schools like SE Louisiana (NET 262) Northwestern State (NET 338) or McNeese State (NET 282). Many of these aren't significantly worse adds than Bellarmine (NET 250) would be for the Horizon League. The difference is that the A-Sun lacks the same core and depth that the Horizon League already has. Even Robert Morris not yet up to speed competitively and Wright State and NKU not being very good (whether that's long term remains to be seen) the HL still has two schools with NETs of 150 or better (Oakland and Cleveland State) and a 3rd (Detroit) hovering around 200. The A-Sun has zero teams outside of the two that are leaving in the top 150 and just two in the top 200 (Jacksonville 160 and Florida Gulf Coast (190). Add in the institutional advantages of having a presence in the larger markets for Bellarmine and Bellarmine's past association with a midwestern conference in D2 and I would be surprised if they turned down an HL invite if one came along. A-Sun football doesn't help Bellarmine as I don't think their football program ever got beyond the rumor stage. They are a basketball school in need of a basketball conference.
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Post by gbphoenix1 on Jan 11, 2022 17:18:28 GMT -6
Sorry for the confusion, right now as in the next year or two. The HL has work to do but has more potential to get that work done. I think it's going to take a little time to clean up this mess.
Long term I think the HL can be ranked in the 17 to 20 conference ranking range. I see the ASun in the 20 to 24 range.
While that is playing out though I wouldn't be in a rush to join the HL if I were them. Why not take your time and see what happens.
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Post by vugrad1314 on Jan 14, 2022 1:09:15 GMT -6
I'm not saying this is the add the HL should make nor is it the add I would make but I don't think SIU-Edwardsville is getting enough consideration here. It keeps them in Illinois and provides a piece (however small) of the St Louis market. Plus they can help the league's numbers in some sports.
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Post by rogobob77 on Jan 22, 2022 10:01:53 GMT -6
Appears to be more than a theoretical question:
NEWS: The Missouri Valley Conference is expected to add UIC as a member for the 22-23 season, according to a source.
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Post by vugrad1314 on Jan 22, 2022 11:04:15 GMT -6
Yep Looks like a done deal. I firmly expect Bellarmine to be the HL's first call and I believe the Knights will accept with the long-term future of the A-Sun as a basketball conference in doubt. They are losing their top 2 schools in terms of the NET plus as a private school in an urban setting Bellarmine fits better with the HL than the A-Sun. Probably not a huge difference in travel either plus no football baggage. Not sure who they'd go with if Bellarmine says no. Morehead State might want a life raft out of the OVC and while they bring a decent program they don't bring a presence in a market which seems to be important to the HL by and large. I don't see St Thomas being interested and Lipscomb makes no sense without Bellarmine. I agree that SIUE isn't the best program and is a bit of an outlier but the league did add IUPUI just to have an Indiana presence after Valpo left. I do realize that the league offices are in Indy and it's a lot more centrally located than SIUE would be (obviously) but the point is that the HL isn't above making an unpopular add for market presence which SIUE would certainly be. I still think Bellarmine will say yes though. Their previous longstanding association with a midwestern conference cannot and should not be discounted here. I also think they have a rivalry with NKU if I'm not mistaken plus it adds another LAX program which could allow the HL to sponsor the sport if they wish. I believe Detroit Cleveland State and RMU all play it. Bellarmine would make four and grabbing two affiliates probably wouldn't be too hard.
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Post by ougrizz05 on Jan 22, 2022 11:04:57 GMT -6
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Post by vugrad1314 on Jan 22, 2022 11:36:33 GMT -6
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Post by letsgoeagles on Jan 22, 2022 13:50:34 GMT -6
USI will let their intentions be known about D-1 by no later than mid-February. The Board of Trustees have been intentionally quite methodical in this process...which I see as a positive. If the answer was a flat "no" we would already know that by now. Of course, I am trying to be optimistic. It takes no convincing that the OVC commissioner desperately wants them....they are so desperate for teams. The only positive for joining that particular league is in all likelihood they could compete against any of those teams, even with the talent they have right now. Also, the end of season tournament is in Evansville. My desire has always been the Horizon - a much better league. I have no idea of how interested the Horizon would be in USI - they have no history in taking on transitional teams. I would not blame them if they took in Bellarmine, but I am betting USI will pass them up at some point, USI has a hell of a lot better history and facilities. We shall see.
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Post by metrosjags1969 on Jan 23, 2022 14:51:13 GMT -6
USI will let their intentions be known about D-1 by no later than mid-February. The Board of Trustees have been intentionally quite methodical in this process...which I see as a positive. If the answer was a flat "no" we would already know that by now. Of course, I am trying to be optimistic. It takes no convincing that the OVC commissioner desperately wants them....they are so desperate for teams. The only positive for joining that particular league is in all likelihood they could compete against any of those teams, even with the talent they have right now. Also, the end of season tournament is in Evansville. My desire has always been the Horizon - a much better league. I have no idea of how interested the Horizon would be in USI - they have no history in taking on transitional teams. I would not blame them if they took in Bellarmine, but I am betting USI will pass them up at some point, USI has a hell of a lot better history and facilities. We shall see. There are conferences in desperate need of teams, like the MEAC, America East, and, of course, the Ohio Valley. But again, while the region fits Southern Indiana and they do play their end of season tournament in Evansville, it makes more sense for the Eagles to be in the Horizon given the Horizon's quirks (travel partners, need for everything to be near or in Indiana, etc.), and more than likely, they will be an Oakland or a Detroit Mercy in terms of competition, which the Horizon badly needs.
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Post by gbphoenix1 on Jan 24, 2022 16:07:16 GMT -6
Thankfully there is no indication that Chicago State is a serious candidate to fill the hole left by UIC.
I feel confident the pecking order is
Bellarmine Stay at 11 Some other school Chicago State
The real question is how interested is Bellarmine in the HL?
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