What Team(s) Does HL Backfill With?

That might be a little bit of wishful thinking, because most of us aren't yet at the top of our cycle. In a couple years, sure, I could see that. But Robert Morris has been ravaged by transfers like Cleveland State. Belmont and Murray State's biggest reason to turn us down is the jump in travel costs - and that was the same reason Belmont didn't want the MVC visiting their campus. I'm just not so sure those five could be the teams in a 14 scenario.

I don't think those 5 will all join either.  However, of the names being thrown around that has to be the strongest grouping.

If somehow they all did join that has to move the HL ahead of the Summit, MAC, CAA, Sunbelt, MVC and Southern for sure.

Hey I have already accepted it will be FW, Lipscomb and Southern Indiana.  For me I have little room to be disappointed and lots of room to be excited if it is better than that!

I know that this won't ingratiate me to many on this board, but I've just about talked myself into IUPUI as our best bet. Their track record both on the court and in the stands leaves a lot to be desired (but those in glass houses shouldn't throw stones), but are they any more of a gamble than NKU was?

The fairgrounds arena is a gorgeous facility. Moving to the HL should improve recruiting and free up travel money for other uses. The school is in a more stable position than Fort Wayne.

NKU had the advantage of being a mostly unknown quantity, whereas IUPUI has baggage to overcome. But from the perspective of potential they might be our best shot without doing something truly insane like adding NMSU.

100% this. In 2027 USI very well may be a good add. Let's get back to 2017 for now.

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There are about 200 teams that don't play FBS football or are totally out of the HL's level (Big East, Gonzaga). When you take out the A10, MVC, Ivy, WCC, Big West, MEAC and SWAC there are about 140 teams left to choose from. When you start to get realistic about who is additive or near the footprint you could stretch and say there are about 26 D1 possibilities. I have the 15 from PantherU's expense list plus Belmont, Chattanooga, EKU, North Dakota, St. Francis PA, Canisius, Niagara, Little Rock, Arlington, NJIT and SIUE.

Here is my point. The pool isn't all that big. Then consider who is really in play and I would submit the number of programs to consider is way less than 26. The HL probably wants to add one baseball playing (likely), solid men's hoops team that is a geographic fit within the next year. Then keep working on MSU and Belmont to get to 12 members. If they don't join, then they could add USI if they make a move to D1. They could add them along with another team in that area like Lipscomb and be set. I am not thinking the HL would invite USI NOW but I would be very confident that the HL is very well versed in what USI is doing and wouldn't wait 8 or 10 years to grab them if they made a move and the league wasn't at 12 already. With the small pool of candidates of course it is relevant to keep tabs of a team right in the backyard. Especially since the best targets seem to be reluctant to join right now. Expansion to 12 doesn't have to happen all at once.

Does not adding a team this off season indicate they are waiting on an ideal fit from their best target or are they moving on and waiting for the backups to get their affairs in order?

Having to be affiliated with a conference right away is a good thing for transitioning teams. I don't know for sure how it worked in the past but I thought Fort Wayne and South Dakota were independent and some of the Dakota's were in the Great West or United Basketball which seemed more like a scheduling alliance than a conference. Those schools would be much further along than they already are if they had a good home from the start.

Again I am not saying that the HL will invite USI now. I am simply suggesting that if USI is going to move to D1 that they are not making their plans independently. Rather they are doing so in consultation with prospective leagues like the ASun, OVC, Summit and Horizon. The Horizon can try to make their other moves (Belmont/Murray State/NMSU/GCU/RMU) and if it doesn't pan out they can look to add a USI when they are ready to make a move. I think they are relevant to the conversation.

As for the Summit being stronger than the Horizon. I am not sure about that going forward. Perhaps last year on paper they might have been slightly better. Most of that comes from the bottom not being as bad because the top doesn't seem as strong. In the 9 member Summit there were 2 first year coaches, 5 third year coaches and ORU and Omaha with long standing coaches. For whatever reason ORU bottomed out last year after being strong for the first 16 years of Sutton's time. Seems like he was being pushed out.

Anyway, in the Horizon last year there were 4 first year coaches, 3 second year coaches, Kampe and two train wrecks at CSU and YSU. Now that CSU and YSU have been cleaned up and the other 7 new guys have more time in their chairs I think you will see the HL strengthen the bottom members and even with the loss of Valpo start to put a gap to leagues that are similarly ranked.

From where I sit NDSU, SDSU and FW where on solid footing when their coaches took over. Denver wasn't bad. IUPUI and W. ILL either have the wrong guy or are just tough gigs. Compared to Milwaukee, UIC, Detroit, CSU and YSU being in bad shape and NKU not even being a full D1 member when the new guys took over. One league looks like it has a better chance for a snap back than the other. I could entertain an organic growth opportunity discussion being more equal over the long term but that is hard to measure.