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Post by Deleted on Mar 13, 2014 9:34:38 GMT -6
Saw this bit of information that may just impact realignment this off-season. Big East Commissioner Val Ackerman says that the Big East is set for now. They don't plan on any immediate expansion. I guess that puts a crimp in the plans of Big East hopefuls Dayton, SLU, VCU and Richmond. I wonder what this does to the MVC and the Horizon? Link: Big East Schools Are Set For NowFrom the article: The on-court product has been led by Villanova and Creighton and a muddle of look-alike teams beating up on one another, such as Xavier, Georgetown, St. John’s and Providence. Butler has struggled. Barring a miracle this week, it will miss the N.C.A.A. tournament for only the second time since 2007, a significant stumble for the league’s image. Still, those involved with the member institutions found more reasons for optimism. DePaul Coach Oliver Purnell said the personalities and styles of the incoming teams have helped the league maintain a familiar feel. And Vince Nicastro, Villanova’s athletic director, said the new league shared visions it never could in years past, when realignment concerns clouded most discussions. “It’s given us a chance to re-evaluate what we are as a group of 10,” he said. “Val has really brought some innovative thoughts about how to preserve the soul of this league, but package in it a more innovative way as we move forward.” Ackerman said the league had no plans for expansion at the moment, citing what she perceived as contentment from the university presidents about the configuration. But, she added, “We’re monitoring.” “The landscape, I think, is far from settled,” Ackerman said. “We’re in a quiet period in terms of alignment. It’s not like it was a couple of years ago. But I think our schools are set for now. I think this group of schools is very common in what they feel is important. We’re not pushing it at this point.” |
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Post by kevinudm on Mar 14, 2014 10:06:09 GMT -6
If we head into a new round of realignment in April/May, it certainly doesn't look like the Big East will kick it off. A year ago they stopped at 10 schools because the they had no commissioner or league structure, so the university presidents of the Catholic 7 added three obvious choices and deferred any more decisions to another day. In year one of operations, they've been too focused on establishing the league to look at expansion. And their view on their needs might be evolving. TV ratings have been disappointing, in part because they are made of up 10 relatively small schools with limited bases of alumni and local support. And they're going to get fewer NCAA bids then the A10 - but do they need to add two great programs, or at least one more DePaul, so help build up the W-L records of the other members?
LeCrone doesn't sound like he's got any imminent actions planned. NKU had a disappointing season, losing nine of their final 10 games, and may need another year or two before they are ready for the HL.
Among the power conferences only the Big 12 seems likely to act in the near term, to get to 12 teams. If they added Cincinnati plus someone else, the AAC would need one or two replacements; one of them could be U-Mass from the A10, which could have repercussions for the HL. But the Big 12 doesn't sound like they plan to act this year.
So who might kick off the realignment season?
The Mountain West Conference. Since Hawaii is a football-only affiliate member, they have 12 football schools but only 11 for basketball. There seems to some discontent there with the problems that creates for basketball scheduling. The MWC conference has various options (upgrade Hawaii to full membership; kick out Hawaii and add UTEP as a full member, as UTEP is more-or-less in the geographic footprint; add a non-football school, like Gonzaga, Wichita St. or Denver). Wichita St. seems to be the best answer, but who knows? Clearly that would have repercussions for the MVC and perhaps the HL.
CUSA. They're going to be at 14 and may want to go to 16, which could mean raiding the Sun Belt yet again. This could be significant for the Summit League....
The Summit League. With Oral Roberts returning next year, the Summit is starting to look stable and a reasonably desirable place to be. Both Oral Roberts and Denver need travel partners. Arkansas Little Rock would be a good partner for ORU, but they seem reasonably satisfied today to remain as a non-football member of the Sun Belt. But they could be motivated to jump to the Summit if CUSA takes another bite out of the Sun Belt. UMKC would also work as a travel partner for ORU. The Summit would also like to get Northern Colorado (perfect travel partner for Denver) and North Dakota, both of which are geographic outliers in the Big Sky. But this would require getting MVFC membership for these two schools' football teams, so this would be a tough trick to pull off. Other Summit targets could be Belmont, NKU, Chicago St., or SIU-Edwardsville.
We may not see realignment action in the next few months. If the HL does anything it will likely only be reactive (like an offer to Belmont or NKU if either of those schools shows an interest in the Summit). |
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Post by Deleted on Mar 14, 2014 11:42:15 GMT -6
If we head into a new round of realignment in April/May, it certainly doesn't look like the Big East will kick it off. A year ago they stopped at 10 schools because the they had no commissioner or league structure, so the university presidents of the Catholic 7 added three obvious choices and deferred any more decisions to another day. In year one of operations, they've been too focused on establishing the league to look at expansion. And their view on their needs might be evolving. TV ratings have been disappointing, in part because they are made of up 10 relatively small schools with limited bases of alumni and local support. And they're going to get fewer NCAA bids then the A10 - but do they need to add two great programs, or at least one more DePaul, so help build up the W-L records of the other members? Well, well, well, a couple of the unexpected issues that would have been a deterrent to expansion has happened. I also think the New Big East overestimated both Butler and the Big East's name recognition in keeping them a part of the Big 6 conferences, which is now down to 5, the P5 (Power 5). LeCrone doesn't sound like he's got any imminent actions planned. NKU had a disappointing season, losing nine of their final 10 games, and may need another year or two before they are ready for the HL. ...unless they get an offer from the OVC. If the HL does invite more than one program, they should go ahead and extend an invite to NKU as well just to head off other leagues from offering. This program will be a good one down the road, quicker than Youngstown State's BB program when it began to emerge. The Mountain West Conference. Since Hawaii is a football-only affiliate member, they have 12 football schools but only 11 for basketball. There seems to some discontent there with the problems that creates for basketball scheduling. The MWC conference has various options (upgrade Hawaii to full membership; kick out Hawaii and add UTEP as a full member, as UTEP is more-or-less in the geographic footprint; add a non-football school, like Gonzaga, Wichita St. or Denver). Wichita St. seems to be the best answer, but who knows? Clearly that would have repercussions for the MVC and perhaps the HL. I still don't think the MWC will add Wichita State. They would still be an outlier and even farther from any MWC school than they would be if invited to the A-10. The Summit League. With Oral Roberts returning next year, the Summit is starting to look stable and a reasonably desirable place to be. Both Oral Roberts and Denver need travel partners. Arkansas Little Rock would be a good partner for ORU, but they seem reasonably satisfied today to remain as a non-football member of the Sun Belt. But they could be motivated to jump to the Summit if CUSA takes another bite out of the Sun Belt. UMKC would also work as a travel partner for ORU. The Summit would also like to get Northern Colorado (perfect travel partner for Denver) and North Dakota, both of which are geographic outliers in the Big Sky. But this would require getting MVFC membership for these two schools' football teams, so this would be a tough trick to pull off. Other Summit targets could be Belmont, NKU, Chicago St., or SIU-Edwardsville. The Summit is becoming quite interesting. With Denver joining this past season and Oral Roberts coming back next season, it appears to be settling on good foundation. It's also starting to look good once again to Kansas City. There are rumors that they may want back in. The Summit League finished 17th in the conference rpi's...not bad for them. Just 3 spots behind the Horizon League for this season. I don't think Belmont would be an option for them because no one in their right mind would want to go from Nashville to the Dakotas...and for the SL Tournament every year?! Going from Tulsa to the Dakotas for Oral Roberts...that's another story! The Summit League's improvement is another reason the Horizon League needs to make some moves, but not just for the sake of making a move. It has to be done in order to improve this League's potential in landing multiple yearly bids to the NCAA Tournament. We may not see realignment action in the next few months. If the HL does anything it will likely only be reactive (like an offer to Belmont or NKU if either of those schools shows an interest in the Summit). Commissioner LeCrone, in his State of the Horizon League address, stated that the League has several plans in place and are ready to execute them. Sounds like it could be a mixture of proactive and reactive measures. |
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Post by commissioner on Mar 15, 2014 7:40:49 GMT -6
I would hope the Horizon keeps working on Belmont. Ten teams makes scheduling easier, and Belmont is an obvious addition. Beyond their success on the court, they've got good facilities, bring a good market, and are an ambitious, well-run university with some cash. Belmont may be hoping for something better - A10? MVC? - so even as you court them you need to let them know the opportunity won't be there forever.
Belmont would be a nice addition to the Horizon. It would please we private school guys, and beyond the pluses listed above, it opens up southern expansion, improving the possibilities of snagging Evansville, Murray State, and others in points south, or being an attractive conference for other privates such as Bradley and Drake, if the Horizon ever wants to go on to 12. Its basketball budget fits neatly into the Horizon (it would be third in the Horizon, about $300K behind Detroit and within $100K of #2 Cleveland State and what would then be #4 Milwaukee. Belmont's average attendance gone from 1486 in 2010 to 1802 to 2012 (in 2012) to about 2730 each of the last two years. The Horizon has long placed a premium on a tight geographic footprint but expanding to Nashville seems realistic.
The Horizon really is the right fit for Belmont. At a bit over $2.2 million, their basketball budget is larger than that of anyone else in the OVC, and dwarves that of everyone but Murray State. But in the A10, it would be smaller than everyone else except St. Bonaventure and LaSalle, and would be less than half of top spending Rhode Island. Their budget fits into the middle of the pack in the MVC, but is still less than half that of Wichita State. As noted, however, it would be third in the Horizon, however, after Detroit and Cleveland State, and very comparable to where most schools are. Travel wise they actually fit the Horizon much better than the A10 or MVC. CUSA would be their other option, but why join a sprawling, imageless conference of football playing state schools? I suppose they could also be holding out hope for the Big East, but that's not likely short term and would be more likely long term if they first joined the Horizon.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 15, 2014 8:15:47 GMT -6
I would hope the Horizon keeps working on Belmont. Ten teams makes scheduling easier, and Belmont is an obvious addition. Beyond their success on the court, they've got good facilities, bring a good market, and are an ambitious, well-run university with some cash. Belmont may be hoping for something better - A10? MVC? - so even as you court them you need to let them know the opportunity won't be there forever. Belmont would be a nice addition to the Horizon. It would please we private school guys, and beyond the pluses listed above, it opens up southern expansion, improving the possibilities of snagging Evansville, Murray State, and others in points south, or being an attractive conference for other privates such as Bradley and Drake, if the Horizon ever wants to go on to 12. Its basketball budget fits neatly into the Horizon (it would be third in the Horizon, about $300K behind Detroit and within $100K of #2 Cleveland State and what would then be #4 Milwaukee. Belmont's average attendance gone from 1486 in 2010 to 1802 to 2012 (in 2012) to about 2730 each of the last two years. The Horizon has long placed a premium on a tight geographic footprint but expanding to Nashville seems realistic. The Horizon really is the right fit for Belmont. At a bit over $2.2 million, their basketball budget is larger than that of anyone else in the OVC, and dwarves that of everyone but Murray State. But in the A10, it would be smaller than everyone else except St. Bonaventure and LaSalle, and would be less than half of top spending Rhode Island. Their budget fits into the middle of the pack in the MVC, but is still less than half that of Wichita State. As noted, however, it would be third in the Horizon, however, after Detroit and Cleveland State, and very comparable to where most schools are. Travel wise they actually fit the Horizon much better than the A10 or MVC. CUSA would be their other option, but why join a sprawling, imageless conference of football playing state schools? I suppose they could also be holding out hope for the Big East, but that's not likely short term and would be more likely long term if they first joined the Horizon. Excellent analysis Commissioner. I totally agree. With the way things are going, and we hoping for the HL to invite 3 teams, it may just be in the League's best interest to try its darndest to just get Belmont in for the reasons you listed. I'm sure they've popped up on the list of the A-10 and/or MVC as a possible invitee. I'm hopeful the HL is doing due diligence. The Big East's standing pat is opening possibilities for other conferences. |
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Post by commissioner on Mar 15, 2014 9:53:08 GMT -6
But what southern schools are there to add? None, except maybe (but probably not) Evansville. The other options are to stick with 9 or add NKU and maybe Lipscomb. Murray State is not coming, and Belmont has to know that even if they are coming, it's only if Belmont comes. Mercer? Still 5 hours from Nashville and a huge leap for everyone else in the conference. East Tennessee State? Do we want to add NKU (which doesn't do a lot for Belmont's travel concerns) and be back at the awkward 11 teams? Or add Lipscomb? Double meh.
So you keep working on Belmont. Do they want to stay in OVC oblivion, or join a conference that in every other way but travel is a better fit for where they are, where they probably want to be? To say if we can add 2 other southern schools and promise to look at other southern schools in future expansion is to say we may as well drop all discussion of Belmont in this thread. And maybe that's right - there's certainly not much else to say for now. You're the one who argues for sticking with 9, given the other options. That may be best, but it would be better to go to 10 with Belmont, and I'd be working on them, not taking "no" for an answer.
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Post by commissioner on Mar 15, 2014 10:17:11 GMT -6
Here are the options of non-I-AA football schools within 4 hours of Belmont (Wright State is just under 5 hours away), not including obvious non-candidates (such as St. Louis, Tennessee, Memphis, etc.):
Lipscomb
Evansville
Northern Kentucky
Kennesaw State
IUPUI
SIU-Edwardsville
East Tennessee State (actually about 4:15 away)
That's it. If Belmont wants lower travel times, they're going to have to convince some football schools to come over, and we'd have to want the football schools, with the attendant problems. And even then the pickings are slim in number - basically, the OVC schools -Murray State, Morehead State, Eastern Kentucky, Austin Peay, Tennessee Martin, Tennessee Tech, Tennessee State - plus Southern Illinois and Indiana State, which are certainly the longest of long shots in any case, and a couple Sun Belt teams (Georgia State and Western Kentucky - btw, I'd MUCH prefer Western Kentucky over Murray State, if you're looking at football schools).
So you either take Belmont off the possible expansion list, or refuse to take "no" for an answer. I think it has to be the latter. It makes too much sense for every other reason not for them to join the Horizon.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 15, 2014 13:25:31 GMT -6
They already turned down the MVC last year. The travel costs would have been too high and joining the MVC without Creighton wasn't deemed worth that cost. I believe they would turn down the A-10 for the same reason. HL fans don't want to hear this but if we stick with our current 9 and only try to invite Belmont, they will turn us down again. If we want Belmont, we have to make a commitment to add other southern schools. They like our conference. They like our conference tournament set up. They like how we try to have travel partners to cut down on travel expenses. They still aren't sold on being almost a 5 hour drive away from Wright State (the closest team in the HL to them). If we can add 2 other southern schools with them now and the promise to look at other southern schools in future expansion, I like our chances. What two other southern schools would you consider Big D? I know you like Belmont, Evansville and Lipscomb. Is Evansville "southern" enough for Belmont's liking? And If Evansville doesn't leave the MVC, then what other southern school would it be? Lipscomb is already the new "southern" program that was mentioned. I can't think of any other that would possibly jump a conference to the HL that's not D II. |
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Post by commissioner on Mar 15, 2014 15:19:34 GMT -6
Actually, if Belmont bolts the OVC, the conference will be basically what it was before Belmont joined the OVC. Losing EKU would hurt a bit, too, but they're not a particularly dominant team - a little revival by Austin Peay and the conference is as good as it was for all those years Murray State played in it before Belmont joined. Murray state wasn't too concerned with it being a bad conference in 2012, and they're probably not that worked up now. And since the no one ever gets a bid out of the OVC without winning it (though Murray would have a couple years ago if necessary), they might prefer getting rid of Belmont and being the big dog once again. Murray State has played for decades in the OVC and never shown much interest in moving on.
I'm not much worried about Murray State's sentimentality as a long-time member and all that. This is a tough business, and sentiment rarely stands in the way - it's a marginal factor. The bigger issues would be more bottom line - travel, mainly - and a basic sense of mission and direction - what do they want to do? Not every school wants to "move up. But if Murray State joins the Horizon, they've got to work out some place for the football team to play. It may be that the OVC is happy to keep them in for football only, but there's no strong reason why they should. Last fall Murray State averaged 5445 a game for football, about 2800 below the league average. The league might want to keep 8 football schools (they'd drop to 7 if both EKU and Murray left). What I've observed is that these "football only" memberships don't usually work really well. They usually tend to be temporary.
I'm apparently reading you wrong - I thought you didn't like NKU and Lipscomb and thought we should stay at 9 rather than go that route.
Don't get me wrong - I'd be delighted if the Murray State, Belmont, Evansville deal came off. I just think it is more likely that Belmont would just come over on its own, any previous representations they've made notwithstanding.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 27, 2014 8:18:38 GMT -6
I'm apparently reading you wrong - I thought you didn't like NKU and Lipscomb and thought we should stay at 9 rather than go that route. I didn't say I wanted to go that route. I said those 3 would be the easiest teams to add. I am not super excited about Lipscomb but I would take them if it helped us get Belmont. NKU doesn't excite me like many other HL fans. I would still prefer to let them cut their teeth at the D1 level in another conference. They want in the HL. I think they will still want in the HL in a few years when they might actually be good enough to help us. NKU had a huge falloff this past season. They would seem to be a "dead weight" on the league if they were brought over now. At this point, I tend to agree with Big DWSU to let NKU cut their teeth elsewhere. If the HL invites them...we just have to deal with it. If they are on the HL's radar, hopefully by the time the '16-'17 season rolls around, they'll be ready. Lipscomb, for their worth, based on this season would help the HL in baseball, the league's second sport. Right now they are 16-10 having won 14 of their last 16 games. I also agree that the Belmont, Lipscomb and NKU triumverate, would be the "easiest" to get, but the absolute best group (in my opinion) would be Belmont, Evansville and Murray State. The conference would have to deal with the travel issue (Wright State still not having a compatible travel partner) because the closest of those three to Wright State would be Evansville, and that's a 4 hour bus trip. |
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