Final Week Before Tournament

Records are conference based.

1.  Wright State 15-3 -  Most people have them as the best team even though they are tied by record with Cleveland State.  I think starting Basile over Hall gave this team more consistency.  Hall is a great shooter but finds himself making too many careless mistakes.  Having him come on and off the court a lot helps break his slumps he has.  I've seen a lot of sites giving this team a 70-80 percent chance of winning the tournament, and as much of a Raider fan I am, I think it's just crazy.  Even when Butler dominated the conference, it seemed they lost half of the tournament runs.  I would definitely take the field against Wright State if I were a betting man, but they are by far the favorites.  If they 2-0 NKU this weekend, i might change my mind but now i'd give them 40 percent to take the trophy.

2.  Cleveland State 15-3 - Even after dropping a game to Detroit, I feel like this team is extremely consistent.  The depth of this team really takes care of any major problems, I feel they could be down two players and still be competing which is a strength I think they have over Wright State.  2 of their losses came from strong players putting 30+ (A.Davis, T.Lucas) on them.  Only the Raiders have beat them with a well rounded attack.  Find a way to clamp down on them and you'll be back to a 50/50 chance against the Raiders in the finals.  I'll give them 25 percent chance to win it.

3.  Northern Kentucky 10-6 - You have to be thrilled to be on a rebuild year and be sitting 3rd in league play.  Winning 7 of the last 8, you are getting your younger players to work well together and sometimes to fill in the holes that you have, just takes time.  The worries I have is most of those wins were against teams who are fumbling to find identity.  The Raider game will be the last chance your coach can find flaws to fix before tournament time.  It's important for the coach to control his team this weekend if they slide a bit to make sure it doesn't get out of hand, it will be good for this young team to treat these games as tournament games for some experience.  If he can keep Wright State from getting a 10-15 point spurt like Milwaukee was unable to do, this team will do extremely well.  I'll give them 10 percent to win it.

4.  Detroit Mercy 8-6 - Winners of their 8 of last 10 games, Detroit might have got things figured out.  Having a struggling RMU the last weekend gives Detroit a chance to practice a few setups for the tournament.  I would use this time to try out different defensive looks that might help them against better teams in the tournament.  I would also tone down A. Davis play to keep him healthy.  I'll give them 15 percent. 

5.  Rest of the field - I give 10 percent to.  I would say of the field maybe Oakland/Milwaukee/Green Bay has an outside chance.  IUPUI/YSU might be able to take games behind star power, but to string enough wins together will be difficult.  UIC/PFW/RMU need to be thinking about how to make it work for next year, take final notes for recruiting.  Oakland's Kampe can sometimes come up with good enough plans to win games, Milwaukee's team has a heart of gold, they are hustlers, but they usually get one bad streak that ruins it for them, Green Bay feels they need everyone to have a good day to win.  If I was any good at memes/gifs, i would make one of Burk & Minnett faces on the rock and samuel jackson and it would be aiming for the horizon league championship instead of the bushes as per the movie the other guys.  If IUPUI was in like the MEAC or another small conference, i think they could carry this team, but its going to be tough to win 4 in a row.  Would love to see DQ get another shot next year, i feel like this year was taken from him and it destroyed the momentum YSU had going.  If DQ & Naz can get help from Shamar & Akuchie, they might be able to win a few. 

Anyway, i've rambled long enough.  Excited for one last weekend of games, looking forward to the tournament.  I hope every team can stay healthy and get to play in it.