norsefan92
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Die Hard NKU Norse Fan and Season Ticket Holder
Posts: 70 
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Post by norsefan92 on Nov 14, 2017 10:10:35 GMT -6
I want to start posting updates on Horizon League teams Kenpom ratings on here to generate discussion about the success and failure of our favorite teams. The reason that I believe Kenpom is a better measure compared to RPI is simple. It puts more weight in a variety of stats and the effect of home court advantage. It is also a better measure at this point in the season because they start from his pre season ratings and evolve from there rather than bouncing around from crazy early results. I highly recommend getting a subscription to the site because you can get a lot of detailed statistics about the identity of your team, win probabilities and projected records just to name a few things.
So the Horizon League Kenpom rankings are as follows. (These are where they rank nationally among all DI teams)
1. Oakland (83rd) W over New Orleans
2. NKU (116th) Next game Friday against James Madison
3. UIC (157th) L against Saint Josephs
4. Milwaukee (164th) W against Iowa State
5. Wright State (195th) Next game Tuesday against Miami OH
6. IUPUI (229th) W against Anderson IN
7. Green Bay (242nd) Next game Tuesday against Northern Illinois
8. Cleveland State (266th) Next game Tuesday against Rutgers
9. Youngstown State (277th) Next game Tuesday against Franciscan
10. Detroit (279th) W against Michigan Dearborn
Obviously it is still early but I think we can agree Oakland is for real. I will be excited to see how high they move up in these rankings. The games against Syracuse (62nd), Kansas (4th) and Michigan State (10th) will be the ones that move them up the rankings the most. As an NKU fan I obviously have some bias but I have attended their first two games and the Defense looks good and their offense is inconsistent but has a lot of upside. The read test will be this Bahamas Showcase tournament. If they beat James Madison in the first round they will likely play Iona (130th) and if they can beat them they will likely play Vermont (72nd). That would be two good games for the schedule and then they go to Memphis (132nd) which is a winnable game and has some name cache. The big game of the Season is against Texas A&M (9th). UIC looks like a talented but flawed team that is probably a step behind NKU at the moment. They will have opportunities for growth with games against Kentucky (5th), Loyola Chicago (100th), DePaul (124th) and Illinois State (94th). Milwaukee was the big surprise pulling off the upset of Iowa State. We know they are not going to be a great team in the Big 12 but still pulling of a win against a high major program is always good. Hopefully they can settle in as another solid team in the Conference. Then it seems like there is a bit of a drop off for the rest of the league as of now but we all know there is some upside in a few of these teams and I am sure the rankings will shift around quite a bit. Ill keep updating the rankings as often as I can.
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Post by HLFanaticus on Nov 14, 2017 13:34:11 GMT -6
Thanks norsefan92. I'll be keeping up. I noticed in your intro to as to why you like KenPom, you mentioned that he starts from HIS preseason ratings and evolves from there. Isn't that starting from a bias...preferably a P6 bias? While the RPI indeed bounces around with crazy early results, isn't that a truer measure because EVERYBODY starts from zero, with no Preaseason opinion, last season residual or advantageous metric thrown in?
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norsefan92
Team Operations
Die Hard NKU Norse Fan and Season Ticket Holder
Posts: 70
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Post by norsefan92 on Nov 14, 2017 13:55:22 GMT -6
Well its based on what his computer model has predicted based on returning scorers, strength of schedule, style of play which it breaks down how well each team does in every facet of the game etc. Its not just him ranking people based on opinion but how they should do based on statistical trends etc. I just recommend checking his stuff out because it will answer your questions. Obviously its not the be all and end all, its just another tool to use to evaluate teams in conjunction with others.
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Post by HLFanaticus on Nov 14, 2017 14:14:40 GMT -6
Cool
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norsefan92
Team Operations
Die Hard NKU Norse Fan and Season Ticket Holder
Posts: 70
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Post by norsefan92 on Nov 20, 2017 8:38:31 GMT -6
Update for this week.
1. Oakland (97th)
2. NKU (106th)
3. Milwaukee (162nd)
4. UIC (167th)
5. IUPUI (227th)
6. Wright St. (229th)
7. Green Bay (260th)
8. Cleveland St. (270th)
9. Youngstown St. (289th)
10. Detroit (299th)
Horizon League (19th)
A lot of tough loses this weekend for Horizon League teams. Oakland losing to Toledo kind of dampers the enthusiasm for them as an elite team. Milwaukee had the look of a surprise team but had an inexplicable loss to Concordia although they rebounded with wins over FIU and Elon. NKU almost pulled off the upset against Vermont which would have been a huge boost but fell just short.
I know I a may sound like a bit of a homer but this NKU team is legit. They are forcing a ton of turnovers (in fact their 24.7 percent forced turnover rate ranks 31st in the country) and playing a very good full court press. They are converting a high percentage of 2 point shots (62.6 percent with ranks 18th in the country) and doing it despite their top shooters not hitting threes. If they can start hitting three point shots the way they have the past 2 years this could be a dangerous team. They are also really starting to generate some local buzz, a number of local bars have declared themselves the official bar of NKU, a local brewery (Braxton) is making a Norse Pale Ale that is served at games and local bars. The average attendance has jumped about by about 800 to 1,000 a game. The whole Northern Kentucky region is starting to rally around the team now that there has been success.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 20, 2017 8:46:05 GMT -6
Being a Homer notwithstanding, NKU is indeed legit. I've always liked Brannen's style of coaching and his demeanor. They again may be the team to emerge from Motor City Madness.
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Post by ougrizz05 on Nov 20, 2017 11:53:39 GMT -6
Update for this week. 1. Oakland (97th) 2. NKU (106th) 3. Milwaukee (162nd) 4. UIC (167th) 5. IUPUI (227th) 6. Wright St. (229th) 7. Green Bay (260th) 8. Cleveland St. (270th) 9. Youngstown St. (289th) 10. Detroit (299th) Horizon League (19th) A lot of tough loses this weekend for Horizon League teams. Oakland losing to Toledo kind of dampers the enthusiasm for them as an elite team. Milwaukee had the look of a surprise team but had an inexplicable loss to Concordia although they rebounded with wins over FIU and Elon. NKU almost pulled off the upset against Vermont which would have been a huge boost but fell just short. I know I a may sound like a bit of a homer but this NKU team is legit. They are forcing a ton of turnovers (in fact their 24.7 percent forced turnover rate ranks 31st in the country) and playing a very good full court press. They are converting a high percentage of 2 point shots (62.6 percent with ranks 18th in the country) and doing it despite their top shooters not hitting threes. If they can start hitting three point shots the way they have the past 2 years this could be a dangerous team. They are also really starting to generate some local buzz, a number of local bars have declared themselves the official bar of NKU, a local brewery (Braxton) is making a Norse Pale Ale that is served at games and local bars. The average attendance has jumped about by about 800 to 1,000 a game. The whole Northern Kentucky region is starting to rally around the team now that there has been success. We are an elite team. We played 3 games without Hayes: injuries to Nunn, Palmer, Brock, and Brechting all limited them. Well Brechting is out until January. None of them were even going to play initially. It is still early, but time will tell you that we are elite. www.detroitnews.com/story/sports/college/2017/11/17/ou-roster-bruised-heading-into-meat-schedule/107783220/ |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 26, 2017 8:45:01 GMT -6
We are an elite team. We played 3 games without Hayes: injuries to Nunn, Palmer, Brock, and Brechting all limited them. Well Brechting is out until January. None of them were even going to play initially. It is still early, but time will tell you that we are elite. Are you talking elite in terms of mid-majors or in terms of NCAA teams, period! How much time do we need to tell if Oakland is elite? |
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Post by ougrizz05 on Nov 26, 2017 19:41:04 GMT -6
We are an elite team. We played 3 games without Hayes: injuries to Nunn, Palmer, Brock, and Brechting all limited them. Well Brechting is out until January. None of them were even going to play initially. It is still early, but time will tell you that we are elite. Are you talking elite in terms of mid-majors or in terms of NCAA teams, period! How much time do we need to tell if Oakland is elite? I'm saying elite in terms of mid major teams. Put it this way if most other teams across the country had their 3time All League and conference player of the year candidate suspended their first 4 games on top of all the injuries that we have had (Brechting, Nunn, Brock, etc.) they would struggle mightly. I'll admit we've played horribly the last 3 games. Kansas is going to have a lot of lopsided games this year...As long as we are healthy I still expect us to win the Horizon and play in the Big Dance. |
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norsefan92
Team Operations
Die Hard NKU Norse Fan and Season Ticket Holder
Posts: 70
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Post by norsefan92 on Nov 27, 2017 8:15:54 GMT -6
Updated Kenpom Rankings
1. NKU (4-2) 110th
2. Oakland (2-3) 120th
3. Milwaukee (4-2) 167th
4. UIC (2-3) 172nd
5. Wright State (4-3) 195th
6. IUPUI (2-2) 227th
7. Green Bay (2-2) 256th
8. Cleveland State (1-4) 282nd
9. Detroit (4-2) 291st
10. Youngstown State (2-5) 316th
Another disappointing week for Horizon League Basketball. I still feel like Oakland and NKU are very good teams but they have put it all together yet. I totally get Oakland struggles this week as they played top teams and have been missing a key player. NKU is frustrating because both the Vermont and Memphis game they were controlling the game for long stretches but could not close it out. Hopefully both teams can start putting it all together and dominate in league play.
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norsefan92
Team Operations
Die Hard NKU Norse Fan and Season Ticket Holder
Posts: 70
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Post by norsefan92 on Dec 4, 2017 8:02:12 GMT -6
Updated Kenpom Ratings
1. NKU 6-2 (92nd)
2. Oakland 5-3 (113th)
3. Milwaukee 5-3 (160th)
4. UIC 2-5 (203rd)
5. Wright State 4-4 (210th)
6. IUPUI 2-4 (249th)
7. Green Bay 2-4 (277th)
8. Cleveland State 2-5 (280th)
9. Detroit 4-4 (288th)
10. Youngstown State (2-7) 320th
Yet another disappointing showing in the league. It's pretty clear its NKU and Oakland head and shoulders above everyone else this year. The league ranking in Kenpom continues to slide. They have slid to 22nd and the Summit League, Conference USA, WAC, Patriot and MAAC are now ahead of us and we are barely ahead of the American East. Im glad to see Oakland moving in the right direction though! I can't wait to watch the NKU v.s Oakland games this year!
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norsefan92
Team Operations
Die Hard NKU Norse Fan and Season Ticket Holder
Posts: 70
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Post by norsefan92 on Dec 8, 2017 12:22:22 GMT -6
Updated Kenpom Ratings
1. NKU 6-3 (101st)
2. Oakland 5-4 (120th)
3. Milwaukee 6-3 (157th)
4. UIC 3-5 (204th)
5. Wright State 5-4 (205th)
6. IUPUI 2-5 (263rd)
7. Green Bay 3-4 (279th)
8. Cleveland State 2-6 (285th)
9. Detroit 4-5 (290th)
10. Youngstown State 2-7 (322nd)
The Horizon League continues to drop and is now ranked 24th overall. We just fell behind the Ohio Valley Conference and the American East. We are just a tad ahead of the Big West now.
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norsefan92
Team Operations
Die Hard NKU Norse Fan and Season Ticket Holder
Posts: 70
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Post by norsefan92 on Dec 15, 2017 10:09:44 GMT -6
Updated Kenpom Ratings
1. Northern Kentucky 7-3 (87th)
2. Oakland 6-4 (122nd)
3. Milwaukee 6-5 (188th)
4. Wright State 6-4 (195th)
5. UIC 3-6 (227th)
6. IUPUI 2-6 (262nd)
7. Cleveland State 3-6 (281st)
8. Green Bay 3-6 (293rd)
9. Detroit 4-6 (294th)
10. Youngstown State 2-8 (321st)
NKU jumped back into the top 100 with a win over Eastern Kentucky and also due to some loses of other Mid Majors ahead of them. Oakland is holding steady and I really think once we get into conference play and they play at their top performance they will crack the top 100 as well. Hopefully that can help boost the conference a bit more as we have dropped another spot to be ranked 25th just behind the Big West now. Oakland has a chance to boost their ranking with two good games coming up. The tough one will be against Michigan State who rankes 2nd in Kenpom and then right afterwards a home game against Towson who has won 10 in a row and is ranked 99th. The Towson game seems winnable and should give them a bump. NKU is playing on the road against a decent UMBC (199th) team and then head to play at Texas A&M (5th) which NKU has about a 7 percent chance of winning according to Kenpom. If both teams can win the games they should win and not embarrass themselves against the top teams we should have 2 top 100 teams and see our conference ranking go up a bit. It is very evident that this is a two team league this year though. We have not seen anything to indicate that UIC has what it takes to be the next elite team and Milwaukee and Wright State while decent look more like middle of the pack teams. Everything else in the conference looks pretty bad.
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Post by gbphoenix1 on Dec 18, 2017 12:31:30 GMT -6
Not sure this is the right thread for this but a tough loss for NKU on the road yesterday at UMBC. It is the first time I had a chance to watch NKU this year. The two big guys were working so well together in this game and they had many nice offensive sets. It made me wonder why they went to Holland on the last play, though he played well.
Also, UMBC has one player...a former VCU sub who was pretty hard to stay in front of and made a lot of contested one on one plays.
Anyway I put that here because it was a tough loss for NKU and the HL, it certainly couldn't have helped any of the metrics.
With that said I like NKU right now to win Motor City Madness again.
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norsefan92
Team Operations
Die Hard NKU Norse Fan and Season Ticket Holder
Posts: 70
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Post by norsefan92 on Dec 18, 2017 12:44:23 GMT -6
Yes very frustrating loss to UMBC. We are really struggling on the road as we have moved to 0-3 in true road games. I think Kenpom knocked us down to 89th so we only fell a few spots. I think that mostly has to do with our scoring statistics as we rank 1st in the country in 2p field goal percentage and we force a lot of turnovers. So the models like our statistical output. What is really frustrating is that 3 of our 4 losses were by 2 points or less and we actually were leading the majority of all 3 of those games. So it feels like just bad luck that we are 7-4 instead of 10-1. Maybe that will make people underrate us a bit.
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