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Post by uicjohn on May 9, 2017 8:57:46 GMT -6
I'm glad to hear we are at least thinking big. In terms of expansion, NKU, Oakland and Valpo have been great additions but this round seems to be the biggest challenge.
Murray State just announced they won't be receiving an invite. Assuming Valpo gets invited we need to act fast and make some positive moves. With UIC, Oakland, NKU looking to lead the pack along with positive moves and direction by UWM and Detroit (and not forgetting at all the solid programs of GB and WSU and possible improvement of CSU and YSU) the HL is seemingly on the way up. I feel that the HL can make a big jump the next few seasons. I want our league to get to the destination level and I don't know if the MVC is that far ahead at this point.
Is it crazy to think that Belmont and/or MSU could be sold on the future of the HL? Possibly but it better be a phone call.
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Post by Deleted on May 9, 2017 13:27:06 GMT -6
I'm glad to hear we are at least thinking big. In terms of expansion, NKU, Oakland and Valpo have been great additions but this round seems to be the biggest challenge. Murray State just announced they won't be receiving an invite. Assuming Valpo gets invited we need to act fast and make some positive moves. With UIC, Oakland, NKU looking to lead the pack along with positive moves and direction by UWM and Detroit (and not forgetting at all the solid programs of GB and WSU and possible improvement of CSU and YSU) the HL is seemingly on the way up. I feel that the HL can make a big jump the next few seasons. I want our league to get to the destination level and I don't know if the MVC is that far ahead at this point. Is it crazy to think that Belmont and/or MSU could be sold on the future of the HL? Possibly but it better be a phone call. I don't think it's crazy. As a matter of fact the HL was set to announce Belmont, Murray State and Oakland to the league just before Butler sent things into a frenzy by announcing they were going to The A-10. That gave those teams, especially Belmont, cold feet because of perceived instability. The League is still looking to go big and HL fans will be quite surprised (good or bad) at what the Commissioner and Cabal does. I truly think the Horizon will be better than it has been in quite sometime. All of the teams will be better...even Cleveland State! Now the Horizon League is on the clock! |
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Post by commissioner on May 9, 2017 14:46:28 GMT -6
Just to be clear that this is not sour grapes, I congratulate Valpo on the move, and would have urged Detroit to make the move had it had the option.
That said, it never struck me as a slam dunk case for Valpo to move. The MVC with Valpo will start 2017-18 looking better than the Horizon without Valpo. But I noted that if you take Wichita out of the MVC with no replacement, the MVC and Horizon had nearly identical conference RPIs last year, with the MVC ever so slightly higher. If Valpo had turned down an MVC bid and the Valley had then taken Milwaukee, the Horizon's conference RPI based on last year's results would be a fair bit higher than the MVC's.
Meanwhile, Valparaiso has never received an at-large bid to the NCAA. Whether the MVC is able to send multiple teams to the tournament is less a function of adding Valpo to replace Wichita, than having multiple schools (including, now, Valpo) step up their game. In other words, Valpo may have moved from a one-bid league to a slightly better one-bid league. The Horizon remains a one-bid league--for everybody else, it's the same as before--win Motor City Madness.
It's not clear that Valpo's new home will be more stable, either--there remains talk of the Valley splitting up over the football ambitions of some schools. In the Horizon, it is safe to say that a sizable majority of fans for a sizable majority of teams would like to find a better conference, but it's much less clear that there are options for any of them. Milwaukee and UIC remain plausible Valley candidates if the MVC wants to go to 12, but there are no other options for them. Oakland, Detroit, and Wright State are less plausible candidates for the MVC. Youngstown dreams of joining the MAC for football, but it ain't gonna happen, and CSU and Green Bay seem to realize there are no other realistic options for them. NKU is glad to be here. Give them another title and they'll probably be thinking bigger things, too, but other than the long-shot Valley bid, what? Unless the Valley strikes for Milwaukee (or UIC), I think that the Horizon is pretty solid for at least 5 years, which is a lifetime in today's environment. UIC leaving would hurt--we'd lose Chicago--but while I'm not hoping for Milwaukee to leave, I don't see any real downside if Milwaukee left and were replaced by IUPUI. Two large, hypenated state universities, both behind their city's professional team and higher profile college squad (Marquette and Butler, respectively) in public attention.
But basically, the league will soldier on. Meanwhile, Valpo's departure creates a power vaccuum that someone will fill. When Xaiver left, Detroit and Butler battled for preeminence for several years before Butler won out; when Butler left, Detroit and Valpo battled for about 2 years before Valpo won out. Some team will now claim the top spot in the Horizon. The league is weakened by Valpo's loss, but hardly crushed. Though hit hard again by transfers, the recruiting classes look pretty good. There are several hungry young new coaches. I'm not too worried.
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Post by Deleted on May 9, 2017 15:11:01 GMT -6
I too believe the HL will be fine and will be better. New, aggressive coaches and talented recruiting classes will bring the League back to relevance.
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Post by ysuindy on May 9, 2017 15:36:52 GMT -6
While some YSU fans lust for the MAC, its not happening as long as the MAC continues to try to play "big time football".
Until market forces push the MAC to play "cost contained" football, YSU will be in the MVFC and the Horizon as long as those leagues will have us (and hopefully Calhoun removes that desire). The administration at YSU appears to understand that MAC football is financially irresponsible to the university as a whole.
But a MAC with football budgets close to what YSU has - yeah that's as appealing as all hell to be in an all sports league with some combination of Kent, Akron, Ohio, Miami, Bowling Green and Toledo. Right now, as long as the Power 5 keeping throwing money games to the MAC and a small cut of all the TV money, nothing changes. To me the most likely impetus to that is the genie of big tv money dries up as ESPN continues to hemorrhage money.
Greedily, I would be fine with IUPUI because it would give me a chance to see YSU in Indy each year (although I'm really looking forward to YSU's visit to Hinkle this upcoming season).
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Post by ougrizz05 on May 9, 2017 16:39:32 GMT -6
Just to be clear that this is not sour grapes, I congratulate Valpo on the move, and would have urged Detroit to make the move had it had the option. That said, it never struck me as a slam dunk case for Valpo to move. The MVC with Valpo will start 2017-18 looking better than the Horizon without Valpo. But I noted that if you take Wichita out of the MVC with no replacement, the MVC and Horizon had nearly identical conference RPIs last year, with the MVC ever so slightly higher. If Valpo had turned down an MVC bid and the Valley had then taken Milwaukee, the Horizon's conference RPI based on last year's results would be a fair bit higher than the MVC's. Meanwhile, Valparaiso has never received an at-large bid to the NCAA. Whether the MVC is able to send multiple teams to the tournament is less a function of adding Valpo to replace Wichita, than having multiple schools (including, now, Valpo) step up their game. In other words, Valpo may have moved from a one-bid league to a slightly better one-bid league. The Horizon remains a one-bid league--for everybody else, it's the same as before--win Motor City Madness. It's not clear that Valpo's new home will be more stable, either--there remains talk of the Valley splitting up over the football ambitions of some schools. In the Horizon, it is safe to say that a sizable majority of fans for a sizable majority of teams would like to find a better conference, but it's much less clear that there are options for any of them. Milwaukee and UIC remain plausible Valley candidates if the MVC wants to go to 12, but there are no other options for them. Oakland, Detroit, and Wright State are less plausible candidates for the MVC. Youngstown dreams of joining the MAC for football, but it ain't gonna happen, and CSU and Green Bay seem to realize there are no other realistic options for them. NKU is glad to be here. Give them another title and they'll probably be thinking bigger things, too, but other than the long-shot Valley bid, what? Unless the Valley strikes for Milwaukee (or UIC), I think that the Horizon is pretty solid for at least 5 years, which is a lifetime in today's environment. UIC leaving would hurt--we'd lose Chicago--but while I'm not hoping for Milwaukee to leave, I don't see any real downside if Milwaukee left and were replaced by IUPUI. Two large, hypenated state universities, both behind their city's professional team and higher profile college squad (Marquette and Butler, respectively) in public attention. But basically, the league will soldier on. Meanwhile, Valpo's departure creates a power vaccuum that someone will fill. When Xaiver left, Detroit and Butler battled for preeminence for several years before Butler won out; when Butler left, Detroit and Valpo battled for about 2 years before Valpo won out. Some team will now claim the top spot in the Horizon. The league is weakened by Valpo's loss, but hardly crushed. Though hit hard again by transfers, the recruiting classes look pretty good. There are several hungry young new coaches. I'm not too worried. Oakland has not been mentioned for an MVC candidate, but we were in talks with the A10 at one point. When teams win, that will attract larger leagues. Be it Valpo, Butler, Xavier, etc. That's the nature of this type of thing. |
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phi13
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Post by phi13 on May 9, 2017 17:55:01 GMT -6
I'm new to this forum, and I have an unhealthy fascination with conference realignment (last month I joined mvcfans.com). So here's my attempt to identify the best candidates:
I will first of all eliminate any team in an FBS conference, the Big East, A-10, MVC, or Ivy. Next I will eliminate any team that is more than 300 miles from the nearest Horizon school, since the Horizon is one of the least spread out Division I conferences. The remaining candidates I have ranked by their average Sagarin Predictor basketball rating over the last 18 seasons.
*At the very edge of 300-mile range
^No baseball
#Football complications
#Murray State (109)
Belmont (119)
#Bucknell (169)
#East Tennessee State (171)
Niagara (188)
*#Delaware (198)
^IUPUI (199)
*#Wofford (201)
#Tennessee Tech (203)
#Austin Peay (204)
^#Chattanooga (206)
Morehead State (209)
#James Madison (211)
^American (212)
*#Lehigh (215)
Canisius (216)
^#Robert Morris (226)
#Eastern Kentucky (230)
IPFW (234)
UNC Asheville (236)
Any other school would be worse in basketball than any Horizon school.
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Post by Deleted on May 9, 2017 19:18:19 GMT -6
Welcome to the board phi13. The Horizon League Coaches are in meetings this week. Don't know if the AD's or any Presidents are present. The League should be making a decision soon about inviting teams. Not all that crazy about your list. I only see 3 on that list that the HL are interested in (a couple possibilities not listed). Since the Valley has made their decision, the HL's choice(s) is not far behind.
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Post by phearthephoenix on May 9, 2017 19:24:18 GMT -6
Judging by LeCrone's quotes to the Green Bay Press-Gazette, I think the conference will try and add 3 teams to get to 12. Obviously the first calls have to go to Belmont and Murray State. 99.9% chance they say no, but they have to be the first calls regardless. Throw in Lipscomb for the heck of it to help ease travel concerns for them. After that I'd look for schools that have potential to be good in the future. Robert Morris is building a brand new on-campus arena. Nebraska-Omaha is still a very young Division I program but I like their potential despite having hockey in the picture. I think UMKC could be solid - they're in a good market and they must spend a huge chunk of their athletics budget on travel in the WAC, they could probably put that money towards their programs if the travel was decreased by joining the HL. IUPUI and Fort Wayne do nothing for me. I like IUPUI's arena but not much else about them. Fort Wayne fits the footprint but have some serious financial issues. |
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Post by uicjohn on May 9, 2017 20:18:22 GMT -6
Are there any MVC teams unhappy with their direction that would jump ship to the HL?
I have nonidea of the answer and know that (at least currently) the MVC is a superior conference and has NCAA tournament share money that we don't. On top of that I'd imagine would be perhaps not unethical but close...
I know a school such as an Evansville has been mentioned as a better HL fit than an MVC?
Just wondering of course....
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Post by Deleted on May 9, 2017 20:21:59 GMT -6
Judging by LeCrone's quotes to the Green Bay Press-Gazette, I think the conference will try and add 3 teams to get to 12. Obviously the first calls have to go to Belmont and Murray State. 99.9% chance they say no, but they have to be the first calls regardless. Throw in Lipscomb for the heck of it to help ease travel concerns for them. After that I'd look for schools that have potential to be good in the future. Robert Morris is building a brand new on-campus arena. Nebraska-Omaha is still a very young Division I program but I like their potential despite having hockey in the picture. I think UMKC could be solid - they're in a good market and they must spend a huge chunk of their athletics budget on travel in the WAC, they could probably put that money towards their programs if the travel was decreased by joining the HL. IUPUI and Fort Wayne do nothing for me. I like IUPUI's arena but not much else about them. Fort Wayne fits the footprint but have some serious financial issues. First off, IUPUI and Fort Wayne STILL won't be invited. Having said that, I do believe the HL will still give a call to Belmont and Murray State. I think the League still wants to migrate south. Secondly, let me throw this bombshell out there: look at what LeCrone said, "...an 18-to-24 month look... A year and a half to two year look. If we think back a couple years, what team or teams were mentioned that we all thought was so far-fetched as to be utterly ridiculous?! The League will most definitely expand and possibly have a surprise, "outside-the-box" invite! |
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Post by Deleted on May 9, 2017 20:29:29 GMT -6
Are there any MVC teams unhappy with their direction that would jump ship to the HL? I have nonidea of the answer and know that (at least currently) the MVC is a superior conference and has NCAA tournament share money that we don't. On top of that I'd imagine would be perhaps not unethical but close... I know a school such as an Evansville has been mentioned as a better HL fit than an MVC? Just wondering of course.... The privates were feeling alienated and frustrated by their lack of numbers and strong voting block. Now that they're balanced, some may be a bit more satisfied. A lot of Evansville fans are frustrated at their lack of regaining the winning ways and crowds they had in the old MCC. But they still believe they can make it in the Valley and that the HL is a regression. And besides, they don't want to walk away from Valley Tourney money right now. |
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phi13
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Post by phi13 on May 9, 2017 21:45:25 GMT -6
My list was intended to be inclusive; a lot of schools on it can be thrown out. But it would surprise me if a school not on that list was invited.
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Post by baxter on May 10, 2017 5:37:25 GMT -6
I saw the names of Nebraska-Omaha and Denver in an article to make the league city-centric. I'm not completely against them as teams but that really creates a whole heck of a lot more travel it would seem. For that reason alone I'd be against it. I wish we were in a position to be proactive about this possibility but right now, as a league and where we stand, we are not. I'd guess the only team that really makes much sense to me would be Fort Wayne. Not saying that I love the idea but just saying that it is kind of the 'best of the worst' scenario. As long as UIC, Oakland, and NKU improve or play up to par next year, that should help the league much more than any team that is added. Add UNO, Denver, and/or NM State and Wright State is as good as gone. WSU is Broke (one time $120 mill reserve down to zero and about to fire 100+ staff/faculty) and my guess is the extra travel costs could result in WSU having the best athletic facilities in DII. |
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Post by commissioner on May 10, 2017 6:38:09 GMT -6
Some random thoughts:
Obvious move--pick up one or both Indiana alphabet schools. I personally don't see a significant difference between IUPUI and Milwaukee. The latter is a bit larger university, bit bigger budget, but both are large, second-tier state schools with pretty good facilities in good markets. Arguably, Ft. Wayne has more potential as a big dog in a small market, but they've got to get their finances together.
I'd love to expand south with Murray State, Belmont, and either Evansville or Morehead State. Prediction--ain't gonna happen.
Why not a move east? I've been a bit surprised by the lack of interest in Niagara and Canisius. Well, not totally surprised. Both have relatively small budgets and small attendance. They wake up some nostalgia from we older Detroit fans--they were solid mid-majors back in the 50s, 60s, and early 70s, and Canisius was a regular on the Titan schedule. They're private, obviously, and Catholic. I presume no one else left in the HL cares about those factors. A three-play east would include Robert Morris. The Buffalo area schools would be closer to Oakland, Detroit, CSU, YSU, and Bob Morris than to most teams in their current conference, the MAAC. Even Wright State and NKU would be no further than all of their current MAAC brethren save each other and Siena. The reality is, in style and attitude, Buffalo is a midwest city, not an east coast town. And it works the other way, too--Buffalo is closer to most of the current Horizon schools than are MIlwaukee and Green Bay. Obviously this would be hard travel for Green Bay, but not that bad for most everyone else. We inch into a couple of decent markets in Buffalo and Pittsburgh. Bob Morris has a new arena coming, and is 55 miles from YSU.
I'm not as dismissive of the western-play as most are, either. New Mexico State, which we know at least had some very preliminary talks with the HL a year ago, is the one school out there that would immediately replace Valpo in terms of on-court prowess in recent years. They've even got a Final Four in their past. Couple 'em with Denver, another school with a healthy budget that has been pretty competitive (top 100 RPIs) in recent memory (2012/'13) and shown the capacity, in those better years, to draw up towards 3500 per game. Sure, it's more travel, but it may not be as bad as some think--Denver is certainly easy to get to. You could add in Omaha or UMKC if you wanted the three-play, I suppose.
So lots of options, but they basically boil down to: stay in the footprint (Indiana schools, maybe with Bob Morris if going to 12); a push south; a push east; a reach west.
In the end, the biggest thing, as with the MVC, is not who we add, but whether teams in the conference already will do better. What will move the conference back up in the rankings is better performance from Cleveland, Detroit, Milwaukee, and UIC (I'll take whatever we can get from YSU, and it looks like they may be getting serious about hoops).
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