How Long Before NKU Is Gone?

It is impressive to win 2 of 3 conference titles and Big Dance appearances, but this is such a small sample size. This has been a very good recruiting class, coaching, and total team effort during the last 3 years or so by NKU. If this continues over the next 2-3 years, then I think that really elevates them another level. I think both success and the lack thereof are typically cyclical in college hoops. Another Horizon team will emerge as a contender over the next few years too. Time will tell.

NKU has been a fine addition to the HL and seems to be thriving there. But they're certainly not dominating the conference, going 13-5 this year. If they want to upgrade the competition they can start with their OOC schedule. This year they played just two non-con games against top-150 RPI schools and lost both.

And where could they go? They're not getting into the Big East or the Atlantic 10. Not into CUSA without FBS football. The Southern Conference or the Colonial might be options, but lacking FCS football NKU would be junior members, and there would be more travel for a slight uptick in competition, if any. The MVC might someday extend into the southeast by adding two of Murray St., Belmont, Lipscomb and NKU, but that certainly doesn't look imminent. And many schools in midwestern conferences like the MVC and MAC are losing the fight against demographics. Top tier state schools and urban schools are generally doing okay, but many of the secondary universities in more rural locations are hemorrhaging enrollment. The MVC might not be a greener pasture.

NKU may someday add football and move into a new conference. In the meantime, like the rest of the league they have plenty of room for improvement right where they are.

The MVC is very reactionary and with tournament bids the way they are, against midmajors, the schools don't want to split earnings with more teams because any team they could add probably wouldn't get them 2+ bids. That said NKU is well liked if they were to expand.

The MVC once upon a time added Evansville instead of Butler. I think the lesson the MVC learned was being a big fish in a small pond doesn't guarantee success in a bigger pond. For much of that time EU didn't have the resources to compete. They do now.

NKU needs to demonstrate they are more than McDonald on the court, they need to raise their financial commitment off the court and they need to see 4k or more in the seats every night before the MVC will come calling. NKU fans don't want to hear this but they haven't proven they are more than lightening in a bottle yet. Once you add a program it is hard to undo that, the MVC knows this first hand.

Murray State has proved they are built to last. In the Horizon only WSU has proved this. I would add WSU before NKU if I were the MVC and needed to add right now.

Loyola made the cut because of the financial commitment, not just because they are in Chicago. Nobody was sad when they left the Horizon league, short term history now proves that opinion to be silly.

So let me start off by saying this may be a very lengthy and nuanced take on NKU in the Horizon League coming from an alumni, former employee/someone connected to the institution on numerous levels. 

While NKU voiced their displeasure with the selection process of the tournament site, i seriously doubt NKU is actively looking to leave the conference. When NKU did their analysis of going division 1 they were told that the Horizon League was the best geographic and financial fit for the university. So it became a priority to get into the horizon league. That is what they were building for when they were still in division ii. We were only in the A-Sun because the Horizon League would not take us straight from division ii. So I think even with our recent success the administration would like to stay in the Horizon League. It keeps travel costs low, there are some solid potential rivalries and we have the ability to make the NCAA tournament more frequently. It was only a few years ago that the financial situation of the university was pretty dire and while it has improved I don't think they would be willing to spend a lot of money to get out of a conference and join a marginally better one. 

That being said I do believe they wil be opportunistic when it comes to moving up the ladder. If other conferences show interest and provide an opportunity for NKU to grow the brand they would consider it. So essentially I believe while they are not actively looking to move on, if the right situation came along they would move. 

In terms of the idea that NKU could be a flash in the pan, I totally understand that line of thinking. We have only seen success with Drew McDonald and John Brannen so its hard to know if that can be sustained when either leave. 

I am not as concerned about the loss of drew because Brannen has put together some great recruiting classes and the seniors are staggered so that the whole core of the team does not leave in one season. So there should be some continuity on the roster. There will definitely be an adjustment period without drew but I think having him be out with injuries at the end of the season helped them figure that out. The incoming class of freshman look really good. Look up Marcus Domask (he just won Wisconsin Mr. Basketball). He is going to be a stud and numerous sources I have heard said they would have rated him a 4 star recruit but once he committed to NKU the recruiting services stopped really tracking him. 

The biggest issue will be replacing John Brannen if/when he leaves. Obviously he will not stay at NKU forever as he is a very talented coach. That being said there are some reasons as to why he might stay here longer than you think. The biggest being that this is his home. He grew up here and went to elementary through high school here, has strong ties to the local catholic schools community, his parents live here, his brother is a high school coach here and his daughters are both in middle school right down the street from NKU. There is a lot that ties him to be in this specific area and that does play some factor in detering him from taking just any big money offer. The other jobs that he has interviewed for have been local jobs where he could still be near his family. He has also made some pretty strong statements about staying in the area and the university has been committed to giving him raises every year to keep him in place. The main issue will be at what point do we get priced out? All of this is to say that I definitely believe coach brannen will move on at some point but it will have to be the right fit. The biggest threats would local schools like Xavier, UC, Ohio State, Kentucky, Indiana etc. If Mick Cronin ever leaves to coach somewhere else I am sure Brannen is on the short list. I would be more skeptical of more far off openings unless they provide a great opportunity. 

Once Brannen leaves I do believe the University is committed to continuing the growth of athletics programs. Especially now that they have tasted the publicity and local enthusiasm for the school that the basketball programs success has had. I firmly believe that they will continue to find high quality coaches to keep the program relevant. They also have access to great facilities, great recruiting ground and a foundation of success (laid by Coach Brannen) that they can sell. 

The biggest factor overall is that NKU is a very young university and has been a VITAL resource in the region that it resides. It fills the role of affordable but quality school and has continually been on the rise for the past several decades. The early success in Division I will only continue to fuel that rise.