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Post by HLFanaticus on Jun 7, 2013 8:08:59 GMT -6
Now that I have your attention, let me throw this out there!!!
From articles and interviews I've seen and heard from Commissioner Jon LeCrone and his use of the word "contiguousness", it appears that Belmont might be out of the question as an expansion prospect (although it's not that big a deal that a portion of Kentucky separates Illinois from Tennessee). With that being said, our choices that are still "contiguous" (touches existing HL states) or within the "bus travel" radius would be: Western Illinois, IPFW, IUPUI, Northern Kentucky, Murray State (6.5 hours) and possibly Kansas City (~8 hours). By the way, Belmont is 7 hours away by bus. If we are left to dredge through this group and hope to reach 12 teams, why not include Chicago State?
I've been looking at their site, particularly their facilities page and saw that they are finishing up a brand new baseball stadium to go along with an already nice basketball arena that seats 7,000 and the fans are right on you! They've advertised on their "Jobs" page that they are looking to hire a Soccer Coach to head up a new soccer program as well. I have also been looking for academic information on Chicago State as they were threatened with losing their accreditation some years ago. Outside of them being a wretched program, the academics would definitely be a drawback, as the HL really pushes student academics. I guess I'll go to US News and World Report.
Anyhow, I know the Board of Directors of the HL do not want IUPUI nor IPFW. Western Illinois is coming off a good year and NKU did a nice job in their first year of Division I. If the HL is going to 10 teams and Belmont is not in the mix, then it'll probably be between Northern Kentucky and Murray State. If it goes to 12, then Northern Kentucky, Murray State and possibly Western Illinois. But what about Chicago State? Remember, I'm not saying "I" want them in, just throwing this out for conversation.
Anybody?
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Post by Deleted on Jun 7, 2013 9:02:40 GMT -6
Maybe I see the point in regaining the two-teams in Chicago for travel purposes, but why would the Horizon entertain a program that is even worse as far as RPI than Loyola was? Their academics are? were? not very good. Have they cleaned that up yet? And to be realistic, Chicago State hasn't really been relevant since the days of Bob Hallberg when they were regularly winning 20+ games. I think they were Division II though.
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Post by Kevin UDM on Aug 1, 2013 12:47:40 GMT -6
One of the pluses of the Horizon League is a tight geographic footprint, as well as an ability to slot most of the schools into logical travel pairs. This saves money for the conference members and limits lost class time for the student athletes. So UWGB can take surface travel to Chicago, leaving Thursday morning for a game that evening at UIC. Valpo is only an hour away, so Friday is mostly available for studies and/or practice. And if they have a Saturday afternoon game at Valpo, they can be home in Wisconsin that evening. At the same time, UW-Milwaukee can do the same thing, playing Valpo the when UWGB plays UIC, and vice versa. Similarly, the Wisconsin teams can fly to Detroit or Cleveland for Thursday/Saturday games with UDM/Oakland or Cleveland St./Youhgstown St. In the league's current nine school configuration, Wright St. is the only odd man out for travel pairs.
Northern Kentucky is the obvious addition. Still transitioning from D-II, they are making a big investment in athletics. They've hired away UWGB's AD. so they have familiarity with the HL. They're a geographic outlier in the Atlantic Sun Conference, but much closer to most HL schools than to their current conference brethren. And essentially in a suburb on Cincinnati, they're just an hour's drive from Dayton (Wright St.). The HL should pick up UNK before Summit League makes a play for them.
That would leave the HL with this 10 team configuration (ground transport time in parentheses):
Detroit / Oakland (0.5 hours) Wisconsin Milwaukee / Wisconsin Green Bay (2 hours) UIC / Valparaiso (1 hour) Cleveland St / Youngstown St (1.5 hours) Wright St / UNK (1 hour)
Ten is a reasonable number of schools for a conference, but 12 is better for a mid-major league. Not every school participates in every sport (even with the addition of Oakland, the HL has only the NCAA-minimum of six baseball teams), so it's good to have a few extras. 12 leaves the HL better able to weather future realignment instability (Fox Sports will pressure the Big East to go to 12 schools by 2014 cuz they will need the programming. Probably Saint Louis plus one of Dayton/VCU/Richmond; and who knows how the dominoes will fall after that?) And while adding two more schools would risk diluting the HL's NCAA Tournament payouts to the league members, that's only true if the HL is consistently a one-and-done league. If the additions lead to an occasional incremental at-large bid, or a stronger tournament representative that can win a game or two, there will be a bigger payout to share among the expanded HL.
The Horizon League cannot reasonably hope to poach schools from the Big East, Atlantic Ten or Missouri Valley. That leaves six schools located in the HL's current Great Lakes geographic footprint: Chicago St. (WAC), IUPUI. IPFW, Western Illinois (Summit), Eastern Illinois and SIU Edwardsville (OVC). Other than convenient geography, none of theses schools brings anything to the table. They are not so much additions as they are dilutions.
So that means that to expand the conference, you need to expand the geographic footrprint, but in a sensible fashion. "Contiguity" is not the right standard; Pennsylvania is contiguous to Ohio and therefore the HL; but a Philadelphia school would not be practical. League additions need to have reasonable proximity, good access by road and airport, and an ability to fit into good travel pairs. So who are potential candidates?
West of the HL: North Dakota, South Dakota and South Dakota St (two of these three): Up and coming programs all, with lots of oil shale revenue buoying the university systems. But a travel nightmare in the winter (which runs from September thru April).
Southwest: UMKC and Oral Roberts: Intriguing choices. UMKC is a good university in a major city, and reasonably close to the HL. But they would need to make a major commitment to athletics to get into the HL. Oral Roberts was a founding member of the original HL (MCC back then) but only UDM remains from their tenure. ORU is a quality university, with good athletics with some history, and alss in a major city. They would help restore the HL's public/private balance, which was tilted by the departure of Butler and Loyola. But they're a four hour drive from UMKC, and much farther from any current league members.
South: Belmont and Murray St.: A good option if they would come jointly. Excellent athletic programs which would bring more attention to the HL. Just a two hour drive from each other, and they make even more geographic sense if Northern Kentucky is in the league.
East: Niagara and Canisius: Not so far-fetched as it might initially seem, this would be akin the the MAC's addition of Buffalo some years ago. These are classy institutions with decent athletics very convenient proximity to each other (half an hour by car). A longshot move, but not out of the question.
Bottom line: Chicago St. adds little to the conference and would be a surprisingly awkward geographic fit (unless UIC or Valpo were to depart). Add UNK for 2014-15, and add Belmont and Murray St. if they would come jointly.
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Post by HLFanaticus on Aug 1, 2013 14:00:51 GMT -6
Excellent assessment. With the talk on HL message boards concerning NKU, it's almost like the talk surrounding Oakland...a foregone conclusion and the worst kept "secret" in the history of conference realignment! They would make an excellent and most practical travel partner for Wright State.
I am all for Belmont and Murray State coming in. The problem I see is that for both OVC teams to leave, they would have to pony up $500,000 each for their exit fee, which was instituted by the OVC this past season. If it was one team leaving, maybe the HL would help defer some of that cost, but for two...?
Murray State, although it has the HL flagship sport of basketball, has no soccer, swimming & diving or track & field. It also has football, which creates problems in and of itself. Having said that, they were one of the teams, along with Belmont that was mentioned as a potential HL pick.
Belmont would fit the bill better than even Murray State, as it has all the sports we play except swimming & diving. It has no football to complicate matters and...it is a private school, which would satisfy the Presidents of Valparaiso and Detroit.
I do not like the Dakotas at all...even with all their money unless they subsidize trips to their places! They also have football with eventual goals of moving up to the Big Boy league. That will cause a problem.
The only real option right now is NKU. They make sense geographically, academically, fan-base wise (they led the A-Sun in attendance) and facilities wise. They would be the only true "no-brainer".
As much as I love the idea of Belmont and Murray State coming joined at the hip, that $1,000,000 price tag stands out as a huge deterrent. Maybe each school's administration and the HL can work something out.
I also agree that the HL should go to twelve as a safety net to more raids. With the schools listed in the previous post, I don't have a problem with Kansas City as they seem to be trying to improve their athletics situation. With them however, I think you have to have another team (not including Belmont and Murray State) SW coming in with them. For that, I think you have to look possibly into the MVC for a team like Missouri State. Then again, they have football and may be looking to move up in the future.
Evansville and Indiana State have been mentioned on HL member message boards as possibilities.
At this point, who knows? Only time will tell. Jon LeCrone and the Board of Directors have a doozy on their hands!
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Post by Deleted on Aug 5, 2013 5:37:04 GMT -6
If the Horizon League were to somehow get both, Belmont and Murray State in, you'd have another traveling pair that's two hours apart. This addition would have to cause the League to think about North & South Divisions to ease the now increased flight demands. The farthest distance between two teams is now ten hours (Green Bay/Belmont). Since the addition of Belmont and Murray State would nullify a true round-robin champion, it shouldn't matter that we go to divisions. Although this set up would mean only 16 League games, it only allows for "long distance" traveling every other year(the North travels South one year and vice versa the next year).
North Green Bay Detroit UIC Milwaukee Oakland Valparaiso
South Belmont Cleveland State Murray State Northern Kentucky Wright State Youngstown State
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joker
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Post by joker on Aug 13, 2013 2:32:52 GMT -6
nku, niagara & canisius are the best realistic options. possibly try to work on membership for njit/nyit into the MAAC as replacement/baseball affiliate even if its a long shot.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 13, 2013 7:52:31 GMT -6
nku, niagara & canisius are the best realistic options. possibly try to work on membership for njit/nyit into the MAAC as replacement/baseball affiliate. Why? What is Detroit's fascination with getting teams from the East? Besides NKU, why Canisius and Niagara...because they're private institutions? What's with that? The Big Ten (Northwestern, Purdue), ACC (Boston College, Duke, Miami, ND, Syracuse and Wake Forest)Big 12 (Baylor and TCU) and the PAC-12 (Stanford and USC) all have a mix of private and public. The private schools from those conferences aren't complaining about being outnumbered. Yeah, I know, they're making big money and the HL is not, so that might be the difference! The Horizon League is what it is...an upper mid-major league that will only get better with time, good recruiting and good coaching. That seems to have been the trend throughout all of the our teams, especially this past off season. We've already gained, on paper, an upper hand on the MVC with Creighton leaving them and Loyola joining. Couple that with Oakland joining the HL and we might have narrowed the gap between our two leagues. The Mountain West will not be the Number 1 conference in the land again this upcoming season. There is a distinct possibility that the HL could slip into the number 10 or better spot in the country. Even if Commissioner LeCrone and the Board of Directors don't add the 3 teams that most other HL member fans want (NKU, Belmont and Murray State) and just invites NKU, that still will be good enough for this league moving forward. We still don't know what the trickle down effect will be from the Big East. Will they invite both Dayton and St. Louis? St. Louis and either VCU or Richmond? Dayton and either VCU or Richmond? Who knows? And if they don't invite both Dayton and St. Louis, will the Horizon League have a chance at whoever is not invited?
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joker
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Post by joker on Aug 13, 2013 13:12:19 GMT -6
nku, niagara & canisius are the best realistic options. possibly try to work on membership for njit/nyit into the MAAC as replacement/baseball affiliate. Why? What is Detroit's fascination with getting teams from the East? Besides NKU, why Canisius and Niagara...because they're private institutions? What's with that? The Big Ten (Northwestern, Purdue), ACC (Boston College, Duke, Miami, ND, Syracuse and Wake Forest)Big 12 (Baylor and TCU) and the PAC-12 (Stanford and USC) all have a mix of private and public. The private schools from those conferences aren't complaining about being outnumbered. Yeah, I know, they're making big money and the HL is not, so that might be the difference! The Horizon League is what it is...an upper mid-major league that will only get better with time, good recruiting and good coaching. That seems to have been the trend throughout all of the our teams, especially this past off season. We've already gained, on paper, an upper hand on the MVC with Creighton leaving them and Loyola joining. Couple that with Oakland joining the HL and we might have narrowed the gap between our two leagues. The Mountain West will not be the Number 1 conference in the land again this upcoming season. There is a distinct possibility that the HL could slip into the number 10 or better spot in the country. Even if Commissioner LeCrone and the Board of Directors don't add the 3 teams that most other HL member fans want (NKU, Belmont and Murray State) and just invites NKU, that still will be good enough for this league moving forward. We still don't know what the trickle down effect will be from the Big East. Will they invite both Dayton and St. Louis? St. Louis and either VCU or Richmond? Dayton and either VCU or Richmond? Who knows? And if they don't invite both Dayton and St. Louis, will the Horizon League have a chance at whoever is not invited? i am not from detroit nor am i 1 of their alumnus. not because theyre private, but realistically theyre more of a viable option then belmont/murray state. niagara/canisius are both outliers in the MAAC on the west side of the state. would i choose belmont/murray state over niagara/canisius? yes i would. would i not go after niagara/canisius because i wanted belmont/murray state? no i wouldnt.
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Post by Kevin UDM on Aug 14, 2013 17:29:22 GMT -6
There seems to be a consensus on NKU. My guess is that the only reason that they weren’t invited for the 2013-14 season is that LeCrone wants them to be further thru the transition to Division 1; so their invitation will likely be before the 2014-15 season.
The HL should not expand to 12 members unless (a) it can stay within the current the geography and not dilute the league (which does not seem possible) or (b) it can expand the geography reasonably and raise the caliber of the league.
Only Belmont/Murray State meet the criteria. (I don’t believe that any A-10 or MVC teams would accept invitations to the HL.) Murray State has made some noise for the past few years and Belmont is clearly a program to watch. Both universities have good academic profiles and the two hour drive time between them is very manageable for travel partners.
Football is an issue for Murray State, but they could park their program in the football-only MVFC (affiliated with, but separate from, the MVC). But to be honest, if Murray State wants to change conferences they might be better off moving all sports, including football, into the Southern Conference. And as HLFanaticus points out, Murray State’s sports line-up is not a good match for the HL, and OVC teams have to pay $500K to leave. (Although Oakland paid $250K to leave the Summit, plus $800K to join the HL so maybe fee is not a deal breaker.)
Anyway, Belmont/Murray State seems possible but not unlikely, so the HL may stick with 10 teams for the foreseeable future.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 15, 2013 0:03:30 GMT -6
If the League were to stick with 10 teams, that would be a shame. NKU alone would not get us to where we need to be, and that's a multiple-bid, win-games-in-the-tournament type conference. Although they are putting more money in recruiting, they still have a ways to go, including two more years of D1 probation after this season! I think the HL will wait and see what the Big East does: will it or won't it expand? If they don't take St. Louis, do we get into a dogfight with the MVC, knowing the Billikens would be too good to pass up and also realizing the MVC would have to bring in another team to even things out. What does that do to the HL's sense of security?
The Horizon's League's ability to win as a conference coupled with the Big East's decision, will go a long way in positioning the HL in its next wave of realignment.
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joker
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Post by joker on Aug 15, 2013 1:33:06 GMT -6
st louis would be an amazing get, but thats another institution i think is just out of the HL's reach. i really dont see the big east not taking st louis.
with creighton gone, murray state is now the consensus big dog in the valley. i really dont see them giving that up.
the HL doesnt need to worry about security, but they definitely should be trying to get to 12.
so lets say the HL does get st louis, who else should they get to go to 12 (after nku)?
if the HL can make a run at belmont/murray state, great but if not, should they go east to niagara/canisius?
should the HL extend affiliate baseball invites to NJIT/NYIT?
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Post by HLFanaticus on Aug 15, 2013 10:43:40 GMT -6
Let me preface what I'm about to say by stating that, for the most part (outside of some "insiders" from member HL institutions), what we discuss here concerning expansion/realignment is pretty much conjecture, rumor, hearsay and what we wish would happen.
I do not believe that St. Louis is out of the HL's reach, simply because of the uncertainty of the college realignment culture. SLU and Dayton going to the Big East is not necessarily the "slam dunk" that most surveyors of hoops leagues, think it is. Since the Big East is a "basketball first/only" conference, for them it's not about getting as many BCS teams (i.e., football teams) as possible to corner the market on Bowl Games and therefore a much larger chunk of the NCAA Billions! The Big East is what it is and knows it. It has ten teams that has negotiated a deal with FoxSports1. Outside of DePaul, Seton Hall, Providence and Villanova, most of the BE teams have gone or are positioning themselves to go Dancing on a more consistent basis. There is talk that this league could possible get 4-6 teams in at some point (Creighton, Butler, Georgetown, St. John's, Xavier, Marquette). With the money coming in from FoxSports1 and the flow of cash from the NCAA tourney bids/wins that would come in, I can see a bit of selfishness coming into play. Why would they want to upset the cart and add two more teams that in all likelihood, may not be a big time contributor to Dancing and FS1 (Dayton, which hasn't really distinguished itself as a perennial NCAA dancer and St. Louis, while riding fairly high now, is similar in history)? These two additions would cause a splitting up of the TV revenue and potential NCAA bid money two more ways? I've seen what money and lots of it, can do to people. It makes you change your mind with the quickening! Can somebody say renege? If indeed the Big East were to add two more schools, the names have now changed from just Dayton and St. Louis to Dayton,Richmond and/or possibly even VCU.
There are rumors and talk that the A-10 is focusing on becoming a more Eastern league and straying away from the Midwest. This doesn't bode well for St. Louis, which is the outlier and 359 miles from it's nearest A-10 foe Dayton. Also not looking good for St. Louis is the fact that for the Big East, the Richmond market (Richmond, VCU) is approximately 2 hours (or 108 miles) from Georgetown (D.C.). If the Big East comes in and invites Dayton and either Richmond or VCU, the A-10 is weakened even moreso and...is it worth it to now be a part of a league with NO Butler, NO Xavier, NO Dayton, NO Temple, NO Charlotte and NO VCU or Richmond? The closest school in this scenario would be Duquesne (Pittsburgh), which is 600 miles away! And it's also not out of the realm of possibility that the Big East invites both Richmond schools and leave both Dayton AND SLU out in the cold! Now the Big East will have two schools with a built in public/private city rivalry!
If, by some quirk of luck the HL gets St. Louis as you posit, I think the Horizon League should then try to get, in this order:
1. Evansville- They, along with St. Louis, would give the HL two more private schools and appease Detroit and Valpo. Evansville is also 165 miles (2hr 44min driving) from SLU. Has baseball and soccer
2. Murray State- 219 miles from St. Louis (3 1/2 hours). Has baseball, but no soccer. Has football.
3. Belmont- They are the most distant from SLU at 307 miles and 4 1/2 hours away, but they also provide the HL with another private school. Has baseball and soccer.
With SLU and Evansville, you wouldn't have to necessarily go to a Divisional setup and maybe not even with St. Louis and Murray State.
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Post by kevinudm on Aug 16, 2013 13:38:31 GMT -6
The Big East has a high probability of taking Saint Louis. They initially stopped at 10 because they couldn't reach a consensus on 12, and decided to defer the question until after they had a Commissioner. Fox Sports has already committed to increase their payments to the Big East if and when they expand, so there will be no dilution of funds. As a new network, Fox Sports will need a lot of programming and will likely push the league to expand soon so they will have more games to air. So the Big East will add Saint Louis and one of Dayton/VCU/Richmond for 2014/15.
Even if the Big East sticks with 10, A10 schools (like Saint Louis) and MVC schools are out of the reach of the HL. The MVC just poached Loyola and they could have taken Valpo or UIC if they had wanted them. (Or any of the other schools too; the MVC just restricted their review to those three.) If the new Big East doesn't take Saint Louis, then Saint Louis will likely leave the A10 for the MVC. (That's what Rick Majerus wanted to do when we was still coaching, and that was before the other Midwest schools were bolting the A10.) In the MVC SLU would no longer be a geographic outlier, and Wichita State would make a pretty good rival.
For basketball conferences (i.e., D-1 athletic conferences that don't sponsor FBS football) that share some geography with the Horizon League, the pecking order is this:
1 - Big East 2/3 - Atlantic 10 / Missouri Valley (tie) 3 - Horizon League 4 - Ohio Valley 5 / 6 - Summit / WAC (tie)
Schools that have moved up this chain include: Creighton (MVC to Big East); Butler and Xavier (A10 to Big East); Evansville and Loyola (HL to MVC); Xavier, Dayton, LaSalle and Butler again (HL to A-10); Eastern Illinois (Summit to OVC); Cleveland St., Oakland, Green Bay, UWM, Valpo, Wright St., Youngstown St. (Summit to HL).
Lateral movers include UMKC (Summit to WAC) and Denver (WAC to Summit).
No one has ever moved down this list and Saint Louis won't be the first school to do so. If SLU remains stuck in the A-10, the MVC will snap them up and then add Dayton (if the Big East hasn't taken them) or else another HL school. With the A-10 retreating eastward, the MVC will look to take a stronger position in the Midwest.
So for the HL to raise its profile, it needs to see current members develop and/or bring in new members from lower conferences, but that have good growth potential.
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Post by HLFanaticus on Aug 16, 2013 14:16:25 GMT -6
I agree with your last statement. The Horizon League needs to live by the tenet of former Oakland Raiders owner Al Davis" "Just Win, Baby!" If this league just wins the non-con games it's supposed to win and snatch a few that's it's "not supposed to", we'll move up the profile ladder. Remember, we were only 3 spots behind the Valley in RPI. Again, they have Loyola now, which replaces Creighton that was the armor bearer for that League. On paper, compared to last season, the Missouri Valley stands as a weaker conference. On paper this season with the addition of Oakland, compared to last season, we are a stronger league and probably on par with the Valley.
I still stand behind what I believe about the Big East adding or not adding St. Louis. If Fox Sports 1 wants more inventory, then let them go into contracts with other Leagues. There are more than what ESPN, Fox Sports 1, CBS Sports Network and NBC Sports Network can handle. The Missouri Valley and The Horizon League play a brand of basketball that is quite entertaining and competitive! I don't think adding or not adding St. Louis will impact Fox's decision one way or another. If this upcoming season of Big East basketball is a smashing success on Fox, why tinker with it? Sometimes bigger is not always better.
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joker
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Post by joker on Aug 17, 2013 19:24:03 GMT -6
kevin hit the nail right on the head. solid.
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