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Post by gbphoenix1 on Aug 20, 2019 9:11:13 GMT -6
The case for RMU being invited is having some decent recent success, spending some money on basketball, building a new arena and opening up a new recruiting market.
The case against RMU being invited is that new market is a bit of an outlier, having a mismatch of varsity sports from what is sponsored by the league and being a private school in a mostly public league.
One item that nobody is talking about is their fan interest. From 2012-13 season they have had 11 homes games with more than 2000 fans. Only one home game had over 3000 fans, their game against Kentucky with 3444. Their average attendance starting in 2012-13 thru 2018-19 has been 1196, 1486, 1106, 1526, 1072, 766 and 965.
I share this information because the schools that are closer to the HL center that have done similar at the gate get crucified by fans of the league. Is adding RMU a case of adding another program that nobody seems to actually care about? This probably my biggest red flag. RMU seems like a case of fans wanting the devil they don't know instead of the devil they do know.
I also agree with Big D that at the administration level the fit has to be a lot tighter than what it needs to be at the fan level.
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Post by gbphoenix1 on Aug 21, 2019 8:22:38 GMT -6
I am speaking of every existing member in the league or every prospective member of the league discussed on message boards that don't have fans of their program. RMU is a perfect fit for the HL because like most of the teams in the league nobody goes to their games!!!!
I know exactly where RMU has played and will be playing. Before they tore down their gym in late 2017 they averaged 1196, 1486, 1106, 1526 and 1072 fans per game. They moved to downtown Pittsburgh and averaged 766 per game. They moved into a rec center gym on campus last year (capacity of between 1000 and 1100) getting back to an average of 965 though it could have been higher because they reached capacity for several games.
It isn't that they had a decline, it is that they don't seem to have fans. In the six seasons prior to last year they only drew more than 2000 fans in less than 15% of their home games.
In the year that they played in downtown Pittsburgh they averaged 766 people per game. Their program doesn't appear to be relevant in their metro market.
Robert Morris had a great run from about 2008 to 2015. Their last 4 years haven't been nearly as good. If it were a blind test and I said the HL can add a member with limited current success, limited fans, a small endowment, pushes the geography a bit, upsets the current travel partners, plays a bunch of sports the league doesn't sponsor and is a small suburban private school but does have a new 4000 seat arena and a decent budget how many people would really lobby for this program?
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Post by Deleted on Aug 21, 2019 17:02:33 GMT -6
If it were a blind test and I said the HL can add a member with limited current success, limited fans, a small endowment, pushes the geography a bit, upsets the current travel partners, plays a bunch of sports the league doesn't sponsor and is a small suburban private school but does have a new 4000 seat arena and a decent budget how many people would really lobby for this program? Hmmm...good question. |
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Post by Blackbird on Aug 22, 2019 5:52:38 GMT -6
When was the last time a current HL member has won an NCAA tournament game? Cleveland State in 2009. Five of the current ten. So exactly half. Just one, and we all agree that Youngstown State is a drag on the conference. |
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Post by commissioner on Aug 22, 2019 7:10:41 GMT -6
Robert Morris had a great run from about 2008 to 2015. Their last 4 years haven't been nearly as good. If it were a blind test and I said the HL can add a member with limited current success, limited fans, a small endowment, pushes the geography a bit, upsets the current travel partners, plays a bunch of sports the league doesn't sponsor and is a small suburban private school but does have a new 4000 seat arena and a decent budget how many people would really lobby for this program? I call BS. Robert Morris didn't just have a good run between 2008-2015. They have made 8 NCAA appearances and 3 trips to the NIT starting back in 1982. Their most recent NCAA tournament trip was in 2015 and they won a game that year. When was the last time a current HL member has won an NCAA tournament game? For that matter, how many of our conference members have ever won an NCAA tournament game? For that matter, how many current HL members have never played in the NCAA tournament? Robert Morris doesn't have a huge endowment. Their endowment is 36 million. That is a hell of a lot more than the team we just added to the HL. Robert Morris does have a new 4000 seat arena and very solid basketball budget. They spent more on basketball than NKU, UWGB, YSU, IUPUI, and IPFW last year. One final point. Robert Morris actually has NCAA tournament success, some basketball name recognition (which this conference desperately needs), a new basketball arena and they spend money on basketball. You have championed the HL adding 2 D2 programs that obviously have no NCAA success, no name recognition, much smaller budgets and also pushes the HL geography. Not quite sure why you are against Robert Morris but would love to add Southern Illinois and or Bellarmine. Robert Morris's 2015 NCAA win was in a 16th seed play-in game. No Horizon team has ever been relegated to that position (though Oakland was while representing the Summit years ago), and if they had, we would undoubtedly have a few more wins. Robert Morris has never won a game in the round of 64. In 6 of its 8 appearances, it has been a bottom seed; in the other two it was seeded 15th. Unlike Detroit and UIC, Robert Morris has never received an at-large bid. Here's another way to cut the data: Robert Morris has been to 3 NCAA tournaments in the past 27 years. That's fewer than Milwaukee and Green Bay, and the same as Detroit, UIC, Oakland, and Wright State. But Robert Morris has played all those years in a conference much worse than the Horizon, making it easier to win. The teams currently in the Horizon would have received as many as 9 more total bids had Butler or Valparaiso not won 9 HL tournaments, and possibly more were any of them playing in the NEC. And Northern Kentucky, just 8 years in D1, has 2 NCAAs since Robert Morris last made the field. Robert Morris has received just 1 at-large NIT bid. The other two were automatic bids from winning the regular season in the atrocious NEC, and they would not have received an at-large bid to the NIT in either of those years. Detroit, Milwaukee, and Cleveland State all have two or more at-large NIT bids in that time; Green Bay has 2 bids--one at large, plus plus an automatic bid that, unlike Robt. Morris's automatic bids, the Phoenix would have received as an at-large had they not won the regular season title. Robert Morris actually has done pretty well until the last 4 years, and there are several reasons that they would be the most attractive expansion candidate, which you've noted and with which I basically agree. But there's a bit of BS going on in your post, too, isn't there? |
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Post by commissioner on Aug 22, 2019 7:17:47 GMT -6
KenPom ranks the programs since 1997. Here is how past, present, and (?) future Horizon teams stack up:
47. Butler
115. Valparaiso
145. Green Bay
146. Detroit
150. Wright State
152. Loyola
154. Oakland
159. Milwaukee
177. Cleveland State
181. UIC
190. Northern Kentucky
198. IUPUI
221. Purdue-Fort Wayne
249. Robert Morris
251. Youngstown State
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Post by gbphoenix1 on Aug 22, 2019 8:35:23 GMT -6
The previous two posts beat me to the punch of calling out some of the "BS" that Big D listed.
Not mentioned is the PFW endowment is $60,000,000 compared to the RMU endowment of $36,000,000.
An additional note for commissioner, GB's 1996 NCAA tournament bid was at large.
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Post by gbphoenix1 on Aug 22, 2019 9:29:15 GMT -6
If anyone goes through the Bellarmine thread on this board they will see that I have not advocated for them to be added to the Horizon League. I wrote that their transition to D1 is interesting and signals a commitment to athletics that some of the HL members don’t seem to have at this time.
As for USI it is a public school with 9000 students, a $103,000,000 endowment, in metro area that likes basketball, adds a 12th travel partner that makes sense, doesn’t stretch the geography as much as RMU, doesn’t compete with any of the pro sports leagues and offers sports that are a match for the Horizon League. It looks like a better institutional fit than RMU.
In addition I have advocated for them because D2 USI has equal or greater attendance than RMU has in D1. Some of the best teams in this league historically speaking have a few things in common. They have nice arenas. They have actual fans who attend games and donate money. They play in cities that are sizeable but not saturated with two or more of the major sports leagues. They have a history of success at the lower levels of college basketball. Wright State and Green Bay fill this bill. I am not saying USI would for sure be a good D1 program, just that they have the makings of what has worked for teams that have consistently been strong in the Horizon League. I recognize they have to do things that are easier said than done, like spend more money on sports. That spending along with better competition would have to lead to more fans which is a risk that it won’t work.
The Evansville, Murray State, Belmont and other better mid major ship has sailed for now. Waiting to improve the league and circling back to them is a good option, probably the best option actually. Yet I don’t see the league sitting at 11 teams and for me a transition team like USI makes more sense than RMU.
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Post by commissioner on Aug 22, 2019 13:18:26 GMT -6
KenPom ranks the programs since 1997. Here is how past, present, and (?) future Horizon teams stack up: 47. Butler 115. Valparaiso 145. Green Bay 146. Detroit 150. Wright State 152. Loyola 154. Oakland 159. Milwaukee 177. Cleveland State 181. UIC 190. Northern Kentucky 198. IUPUI 221. Purdue-Fort Wayne 249. Robert Morris 251. Youngstown State When we look at these numbers, two things stand out: 1. We lost our most successful programs; and 2. Detroit, Milwaukee, Cleveland State, and UIC have all declined dramatically, with the first three having big declines in the last few years. Here are their average ranks for the last 3 years of the 1990s and then in 5 year increments: Detroit:1997-1999: 60 2000-2004: 83 2005-2009: 196 2010-2014: 129 2105-2019: 242 Milwaukee1997-1999: 245 2000-2004: 87 2005-2009: 126 2010-2014: 176 2015-2019: 217 Cleveland State1997-1999: 186 2000-2004: 190 2005-2009: 180 2010-2014: 129 2015-2019: 240 UIC1997-1999: 138 2000-2004: 116 2005-2009: 140 2010-2014: 248 2015-2019: 247 Youngstown State is a drag on the conference, but always has been. Losing Butler hurt a whole lot--replacement OU has done reasonably well, averaging 151 in six years in the league, but obviously way down from Butler. Valpo hurt--replacement IUPUI has averaged 237 over the past 2 years; Loyola, not so much (though Loyola has done very well since leaving, averaging 111, NKU has averaged 145 in 4 Horizon seasons, while Loyola averaged 176 in its last 4 years in the league). But it's the collapse of the other 4 programs that has created the sense of free fall. Arguably, the Horizon just got lucky for a long while. Butler emerged as a legit national program, while Detroit was putting good teams on the floor even as its basketball infrastructure was cratering. UIC, Milwaukee, and Cleveland State (and also Wright State) put some pretty good teams out for--let's be blunt--a bunch of low name-recognition state schools with little prior history and largely commuter campuses. They had some good luck in choosing head coaches--Perry Watson, Bruce Pearl, Jimmy Collins, Gary Waters. Realistically, it was unlikely to last. By not aggressively seeking out a couple strong programs in the era between about 2000 and 2012, the Horizon missed the chance to shore up its base. When Butler went, the league not only lost its RPI ballast, it lost the league's best facilities, the best home draw for almost every team in the league, and the school that was bringing the conference national attention. Whether the league can get back up, we will see. Wright State has a solid foundation. Detroit is devoting new resources to the program. Milwaukee and UIC are trying. Cleveland State, unfortunately, looks like they'll be down for a long while. |
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