Post by kevinudm on Jul 8, 2017 19:19:08 GMT -6
Jon LeCrone has repeatedly said that he wants to get Horizon League membership up to 12 or 14 schools and is willing to go well outside of the current geographic footprint to get there. But the last three conference adds approved by the university presidents have been logical if unexciting choices which were easy geographic fits.
Two universities made pitches to the HL last month (IUPUI and a mystery school) but the presidents voted to invite just one. It’s possible that the rejected school was IPFW or Robert Morris; but if it was anyone else, the HL presidents voted against expanding the geography.
LeCrone says that he can mitigate the distance issues thru the use of divisional arrangements and with continuing the use of travel partners. But the idea of divisions is a red herring; many sports don’t play a round robin anyway (swimming and diving; cross country, etc.) and even with expansion, many sports (baseball) will have too few competitors to split into divisions. Most large conferences don’t use divisions in basketball (of the nine conferences with 12 or more basketball members, only the MAC and OVC have divisions); the regular season is largely about the seeding for the conference tournament and divisions just confuse the matter.
But travel partners are helpful, at least in men’s and women’s basketball. If candidate members to the HL come from out-of-region, the HL presidents will be more likely to approve them if they come in practical travel pairs. Plus new HL members will feel less disconnected from the conference if they have a local league rival.
So who are possible conference additions that could come as travel pairs? I’ve tried to keep the list somewhat realistic, looking only at schools which (1) are in conferences below or comparable to the HL, and (2) might have motivation to leave their current league. So no Dayton, Evansville or Saint Louis. I’ve calculated a 5-year weighted average RPI for each candidate, where the 2016-17 RPI is weighted in full, 2015-16 is weighted 80%, etc. until 2012-13 is weighted at just 20%. The current 10 members of the HL have an average RPI of 209 under this methodology.
Distances between proposed pairs is the shortest drive time as per Google maps.
Here are potential HL target pairs:
249 – UMKC
193 – Nebraska Omaha
195 miles, 2h 59m
- Why they might join the Horizon – UMKC made an ill-advised decision to leave the Summit for the WAC in 2013 but found the grass was not greener. Omaha might be tiring of all of the mid-winter Summit trips to the Dakotas, and as an urban school might see the HL as a better institutional fit.
- What they bring to the table – Omaha is new to D1 and its RPI is weighed down by the transition years; last year it was 141 and included a win at Iowa. UMKC RPI last year was 181, better than the HL average. Extend the HL geography without going crazy.
- Issues – Omaha’s 5-year RPI is a wash to the league; UMKC a drag. UMKC lacks baseball. Omaha’s focus is hockey; they have baseball but lack a lot of other HL sponsored sports.
154* - Grand Canyon University (RPI is 4 year weighed average)
84 - New Mexico St. University
395 miles, 5h 39m
84 - New Mexico St. University
395 miles, 5h 39m
- Why they might join the Horizon – Both schools are desperate to leave the WAC, which is unstable and where travel is just as far as it would be in the HL.
- What they bring to the table – Two fine basketball programs that would really move the needle if they join the HL; last season NMSU won 28 games (including one at Arizona St.) and went to the Big Dance. Two baseball teams.
- Issues – GCU is the only for-profit university sponsoring D1 athletics. Very far apart to be considered legitimate travel partners. NMSU is searching for a home for its FBS football team and may result in another conference change in the near term.
233 - NJIT
169 - Siena College
153 miles, 2h 21m
169 - Siena College
153 miles, 2h 21m
- Why they might join the Horizon – NJIT was America’s only D1 independent when it joined the Atlantic Sun Conference which badly needed an eighth member (because someone had just poached Northern Kentucky); but it’s an awkward fit and North Alabama joins the A-Sun in 2018, making NJIT a lot less necessary. Siena is a good fit in the MAAC but may have outgrown their conference; they regularly average over 6,000 fans per game and rank in the top 100 for attendance.
- What they bring to the table – Siena has basketball tradition and a lot of potential. NJIT is a startup but has shown flashes of brilliance, including a stunning win in Ann Arbor a couple of years ago. Two baseball teams.
- Issues – If Siena starts enjoying major basketball success an A-10 invitation is likely. NJIT basketball was bad last year and they finished near or at the bottom of the A-Sun standings in most sports.
192 - Denver
273 - Northern Colorado
64 miles, 1h 11m
273 - Northern Colorado
64 miles, 1h 11m
- Why they might join the Horizon – Denver would prefer the WCC or MVC to the Summit, but those invitations are unlikely. With North Dakota leaving the Big Sky for the MVFC/Summit, Northern Colorado will be far to the east of any of its Big Sky brethren. The MVFC will have 11 football members with North Dakota and might want Northern Colorado to get to 12, leaving the Bears in need of a home for Olympic sports.
- What they bring to the table – Two baseball teams (Northern Colorado is an affiliate member of the WAC as the Big Sky doesn’t sponsor baseball). Distant but easily accessible (Denver Airport is great) and a fine travel pair.
- Issues – Northern Colorado is football-focused and Denver is a hockey school. Denver basketball is spotty while Northern Colorado is dreadful. HL teams traveling to Colorado may encounter a challenging home court advantage, as only the hosts will be used to one mile of elevation.
293 - Western Illinois
314 - SIU Edwardsville
145m, 2h 37m
238 - Arkansas Little Rock
201 – Oral Roberts University
277 miles, 4h 3m
314 - SIU Edwardsville
145m, 2h 37m
- Why they might join the Horizon – Western Illinois was a founding member of the Summit; the other seven founders are long gone, and 15 more teams have come and gone too. SIU Edwardsville is an outlier in the OVC as a non-football member and has to house their soccer in the MAC as the OVC doesn’t sponsor soccer.
- What they bring to the table – Two baseball teams. Good travel pair. Expands HL geography in a practical fashion.
- Issues – Lousy basketball: Over the last four years Western Illinois have averaged just 7 wins over D1 competition, and last year Edwardsville went 1-15 in the lowly OVC. Small rural markets. The budget meltdown in the state of Illinois could lead to cutbacks in state university budgets.
238 - Arkansas Little Rock
201 – Oral Roberts University
277 miles, 4h 3m
- Why they might join the Horizon – Little Rock is a non-football member of the Sun Belt and might be more at home in a basketball-centric conference. ORU was a founding member of the Horizon (then MCC), and most of the Summit schools seem to eventually work their way into the HL.
- What they bring to the table – Two baseball teams, including a really good program at ORU. Two reasonable cities (Little Rock and Tulsa). A basketball pedigree and the potential to return to prominence with some additional investment.
- Issues – Little Rock beat Notre Dame in the NCAA tournament back in the Digger Phelps era (1986) but haven’t had much success since coach Mike Newall left in 1990. ORU had an Elite Eight appearance in the 1970s and three successive one-and-done NCAA appearances in 2006-07-08 but appears to be trending down. And ORU has some baggage as an unorthodox and right wing Christian school.
171 - Canisius College
284 - Niagara University
21 miles 32m
284 - Niagara University
21 miles 32m
- Why they might join the Horizon – These two schools are generally well-suited to the MAAC but are in/near Buffalo while their MAAC counterparts are mostly in metro NYC or New Jersey. Cleveland and Youngstown at least would be closer.
- What they bring to the table – History. Two baseball teams. Logical travel partners
- Issues – Poor basketball at Niagara. Substandard basketball arenas at both institutions. Not a good institutional fit with today’s HL.
Any two of the following three:
233 - Lipscomb
73 - Belmont
153 - Murray St.
122 miles, 2h 9m (distance from Murray St to either Lipscomb or Belmont, which are two miles apart)
233 - Lipscomb
73 - Belmont
153 - Murray St.
122 miles, 2h 9m (distance from Murray St to either Lipscomb or Belmont, which are two miles apart)
- Why they might join the Horizon – Lipscomb is the northernmost school in the A-Sun (other than NJIT) and might want to follow NKU into the HL. Belmont is reviewing its options to move beyond the OVC, although is seemingly uninterested in Midwestern conferences (MVC or HL). Murray St. may feel it has outgrown the OVC after going 442-140 (75% win) in conference games from 1979 thru 2015.
- What they bring to the table – Belmont and Murray St. bring some serious basketball cred, and last season Lipscomb won 20 games (including a win at Missouri), finishing second (11-3) in the A-Sun. All three schools have baseball.
- Issues – Belmont has had a great run under coach Rick Byrd, but he’s coached them for 31 seasons and is now 64 years old. What happens when he’s gone? Murray St. had great success from the 1980s thru 2015 but in the last two seasons has gone 17-14 and 16-17. And Murray St. would need to find a new home for football if they leave the OVC. Lipscomb needs to show that last year’s basketball team was no fluke and it can regularly win 20 games.
212 - Robert Morris
153 - IPFW
57 miles, 1h (Robert Morris to YSU)
202 mile, 3h 7m (IPFW to CSU)
Conclusion
LeCrone’s got a tough job. When voting on new conference members the HL presidents will look beyond men’s basketball. They will consider institutional fit, academic standing, geography and overall athletic programs. In recent years there were obvious reasons to admit Oakland, NKU and IUPUI. I see no obvious picks for future membership. The best options seem unlikely to accept (Belmont/Murray St. or even Belmont/Lipscomb) and/or ungodly distant (GCU/NMSU).
But the MVC is looking to add two teams to get to 12; the Summit is likely to add one to get up to 10. There may be an advantage to the HL in acting quickly even if that means growing the league without improving it.
153 - IPFW
57 miles, 1h (Robert Morris to YSU)
202 mile, 3h 7m (IPFW to CSU)
- Why they might join the Horizon – RMU is reportedly looking at options to leave the NEC. IPFW has watched its conference move steadily westward, and is now the eastern outpost of the Summit League.
- What they bring to the table – RMU won 20+ basketball games for three consecutive seasons before tailing off for the past two seasons. IPFW has the third highest 5 year RPI of any school on this list and had a stunning win over Indiana last season. Both schools work well with the HL geographically, although they complicate the travel pairings.
- Issues – RMU has no baseball and finished 8th in the NEC Commissioner’s Cup standings each of the last three years, suggesting that many of their teams are not HL-ready. RMU football will need a new home if they leave the NEC. IPFW athletics are generally bad outside of men’s basketball (their baseball team had the second lowest RPI of any school in the country last season); if basketball dips, they are a major liability.
Conclusion
LeCrone’s got a tough job. When voting on new conference members the HL presidents will look beyond men’s basketball. They will consider institutional fit, academic standing, geography and overall athletic programs. In recent years there were obvious reasons to admit Oakland, NKU and IUPUI. I see no obvious picks for future membership. The best options seem unlikely to accept (Belmont/Murray St. or even Belmont/Lipscomb) and/or ungodly distant (GCU/NMSU).
But the MVC is looking to add two teams to get to 12; the Summit is likely to add one to get up to 10. There may be an advantage to the HL in acting quickly even if that means growing the league without improving it.