What Team(s) Does HL Backfill With?

2 things: I think the Horizon will be much better than a 17 or 18 ranking this coming season and I believe the League will make a nice splash with who it adds. I'm not so against a New Mexico State, a Robert Morris or even a Morehead State, if they move the needle toward getting the League another bid or two to the Dance. These next couple weeks should be interesting because I think once we get out of the month of May, it'll be too late to join for the upcoming season as Volleyball and Soccer OOC schedules have to be redone.

I'm not particularly thrilled with the idea of staying at 9. Scheduling with odd numbers is a pain, and you look like a league that was unprepared and blindsided by the loss of Valpo. If LeCrone's assertion that the league was prepared for potential partners and looking to expand, then he should do just that. Also, there are 2 big actions that the MVC could take to throw a further wrench in the system:1- Expand to 12 in the summer of 2018, 2- Lose Missouri State to a promotion to FBS football (Sun Belt, MAC, CUSA). If either happens, the HL runs the risk of losing Milwaukee and/or another school, potentially throwing gas on the current (manageable) fire.

The trick is to stay proactive instead of reactive. When Loyola left, Oakland's addition (as good as it's turned out) was reactive because stability (particularly in baseball) required a move. The NKU addition was much more proactive. That's the direction I'd prefer. Though league quality in recent years is on par, the HL still provides better geography and TV exposure than the Summit for the Indiana schools. Add them and one more (RMU, Lipscomb, SIUe, WIU) to get to 12 and prepare for life post Valpo.

It's certainly not me. Something unforeseen would have to happen for the IUPU's to get an invite!

I wrote on the GB board that I think the realistic answer to expansion is Fort Wayne, Lipscomb and Morehead State. If Southern Indiana is serious about moving up I would put them in over Morehead State. That would give the HL 12 members that make geographic sense and play the same sports.

I know Belmont, Murray State, Robert Morris, New Mexico State and Grand Canyon look better on paper but over here in the real world I want to build a league that can last, with members that want to last and that fans can understand.

There is little doubt that NMSU is the best basketball program that the HL could invite. There also isn't that big of a travel cost factor when looking at sports that play a round robin format (hoops, volleyball, w soccer, baseball and softball). If you have to send 6 teams a year to Las Cruces it might add 100k to 150k to the budget. That isn't too bad really. The travel cost is a bigger factor for them as they have to constantly send teams all over compared to the opponents having to do it maybe once per year.

The problem with NMSU is the end game. It isn't good for the HL. The headlines probably look something like this: Conference USA raids Horizon Leauge or NMSU shifts football to FCS and moves all sports to Big Sky.

The reality is they are a band aid for the HL. They are a football independent for FBS right now. If you are not Notre Dame or BYU that isn't sustainable. They are going to need a home. They already were kicked out of the Sunbelt because their football wasn't great and it was too much travel for the other teams. So that leaves a few options. They can go down a level to FCS. North Dakota is a Big Sky Football member until 2020 but with their move from the Big Sky to the Summit they are moving football to the MVFC. This creates an opening for NMSU to consolidate all sports into the Big Sky which makes sense for them.

If they decide to stay FBS, another way the dominos can fall is Big 12 or Mountain West Expansion. No NMSU isn't on either list. However, the MWC is thought to be looking at Rice and UTEP for either expansion to 12 full time members or replace any losses to the Big 12. UTEP is a perfect fit in my opinion for the MWC. Anyway, NMSU would be a logical choice to fill the void in CUSA and find a home for football in FBS with all sports in the same conference.

For me this potential rental of NMSU is good for the short run but HL member teams will spend a couple of hundred thousand dollars on travel and in the end the HL will get a black eye and be viewed as fading conference as another player on the men's hoops side moves on to other things. I much prefer to find members that can grow with the HL and not rent a short a term solution.

If the league is going to expand and travel.  I prefer GCU, they don't have a football anchor to figure out and short of being called on from a more logical regional hoops conference (WCC) could be in the HL for awhile.

Just thinking out loud here but doesn't it seem like a matter of time until the WAC folds. The WCC kind of likes Grand Canyon. With GCU they could add another player to the top of the hoops pile with BYU, Gonzaga and St. Mary's. The WCC would then need a 12th and Seattle fits the profile. Chicago State isn't going to have sports for long at their current pace. If either Indiana school is invited to the HL, UMKC is a logical replacement for the Summit. I just spelled out what I think will happen to NMSU. That leaves Utah Valley, Bakersfield and Texas Rio Grande Valley. I think the NCAA would at some level step into this conference business and help place the remaining programs somewhere (Utah Valley in the Summit or Big Sky, Bakersfield in the Big West and TRGV in the Southland).

New Mexico State's 5 tournament appearances in 6 years is partially a product of the mass exodus from the WAC. But once Grand Canyon is eligible, there will be 3 serious challengers (GCU, UVU, CSUB) and I expect things to even out a little.

The question I have for rentals and program recruiting is a bit of a chicken and the egg question. If NMSU or GCU and to a lesser extent Denver or RMU are brought in and bring the RPI up to make the league more attractive, would that really matter to Murray and Belmont? If the league is bolstered by teams they won't be playing will they jump ship to the HL? They apparently didn't come when Butler was on the way out. I don't see them coming now that Valpo is leaving. Would they really come if NMSU and GCU are looking for new homes?

So does the league need the rentals to improve the ratings of the league and hope teams come anyway or does the league need to improve each member so that perspective members can see the strength of the long term members?

Also, I know it is has been mentioned that some of the expansion teams are willing to help with travel costs. I think that is fleeting. Once they realize beating up on Cleveland State isn't any more beneficial than beating up on Chicago State for example that money will dry up. The expansion moves should make financial sense independent of any stimulus.

One final thought is that the league likely needs a member that is close to UIC. So if expansion does take place I can only see it being two far away members and not three.